Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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098 FXUS64 KTSA 311946 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 246 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight ) Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Mid level shortwave moving across northeast OK this afternoon, with focus of showers and thunderstorms expected to be mainly on the east side of the circulation. Coverage of storms should increase some over the next few hours, but nothing in the way of organized severe weather is expected. Localized heavy rain is a possibility given the high PWAT values in place. As the low moves off to the east this evening, expect a decrease in coverage from west to east, with most of not all precip ending by 06z. Temps have remained relatively cool throughout today with light winds, lending some potential to fog development later tonight. Storms forming currently over the Rocky Mountain Front should organize to some degree and roll across the high plains, but he environment this far east not favorable for this to have much impact on our weather into tomorrow. && .LONG TERM... (Tomorrow through Friday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri May 31 2024 A relatively quiet day in the recent unsettled pattern anticipated Saturday, though there is some suggestion in model data of a weak remnant circulation associated with any more organized clusters of storms maintained overnight tonight, could drift over the region. Most CAM solutions do develop at least isolated storms across parts of the area, but coverage would likely remain quite limited. A somewhat higher chance of a storm complex maintaining into eastern OK Sunday morning continues to be suggested, albeit in a weakening state. The unsettled pattern continues early next week, with an overall trend toward hotter and more humid conditions. Some potential continues for a few more days for storm complexes to organize to the west and move into the area, with Sunday night into Monday still looking like the period of highest probability at this time. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 AM CDT Fri May 31 2024 Mid level trough moving across the area will likely result in an increase in SHRA/TSRA activity, mainly across far NE OK and NW AR later this afternoon and evening. Coverage likely to remain low enough to only include a VCTS at the AR sites from 21z-01z with this issuance. MVFR cigs likely to prevail through at least the first 6-9 hours of the valid period, with a period of VFR conditions thereafter. Fog potential will increase late tonight, especially across the E OK sites where higher rainfall as occurred most recently. Will include tempo groups from 09z-13z with MVFR cigs, IFR vsbys at KRVS and KBVO, and MVFR vsbys elsewhere. MVFR cigs are expected to lift by late morning with VFR elements prevailing for the remainder of the period at all sites. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 63 85 67 87 / 20 10 10 30 FSM 66 86 68 88 / 50 10 10 30 MLC 64 85 67 86 / 20 20 10 30 BVO 59 83 63 86 / 20 10 10 30 FYV 62 83 63 86 / 60 10 10 30 BYV 63 82 63 87 / 70 10 10 30 MKO 63 83 67 84 / 30 10 10 30 MIO 62 82 63 84 / 40 10 10 30 F10 62 83 66 84 / 10 20 10 30 HHW 65 83 68 84 / 20 20 10 40 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...23