Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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075 FXUS64 KTSA 231855 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 155 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Thru Tonight) Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 As mentioned in yesterday`s discussion, a weak boundary dropping down into the region has caused moisture to pool both at the surface and aloft along and ahead of the boundary, pushing dewpoints upward, with no cooling effect. Not good. The NAM is handling the pooling moisture fairly well, so the Td forecast thru tomorrow will be leaned toward this model. Heat advisory conditions are already being observed across a good portion of NE OK and into west-central AR in the lower Ark River valley. While lows are expected to cool off into the lower 70s over in the Ozarks, there is not much relief from the heat expected tonight across E OK, where lows in the mid to upper 70s will be common. An isolated shower or storm is possible across west-central AR, but I wouldn`t count on it. Lacy && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Sunday) Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The heat intensifies on Monday, with afternoon heat indices expected to climb into the 105 to 111 degree range. The lower Ark River valley of west-central Arkansas, including FSM, could see heat warning criteria. Therefore, have issued an Excessive Heat Watch there, and Heat Advisories elsewhere. After what looks like another day of heat headlines Tuesday, the mid-level ridge will shift far enough west, at least briefly, to allow for increased storm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. If an MCS were to organize and plow south across the area, it would provide some relief from the heat, with the caveat that it could bring some spotty damaging wind also. After storm chances on Wednesday with a weak front, the ridge aloft will rebuild east back overhead for the latter part of the week. Storm chances will return by the weekend as another boundary approaches from the north in a less amplified upper flow pattern across the CONUS. Lacy && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. A few isolated showers may develop later this afternoon, highest potential near FSM, but chances are too low to include in the TAFs at this time. Otherwise, a mix of mid and high clouds will prevail areawide with light sfc winds (<10 kts). Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 98 79 101 81 / 0 0 0 0 FSM 98 78 100 78 / 10 10 10 0 MLC 97 76 97 77 / 0 0 0 0 BVO 97 72 101 75 / 0 0 0 0 FYV 95 70 98 72 / 0 10 0 0 BYV 95 72 99 74 / 0 0 10 0 MKO 97 77 98 77 / 0 10 0 0 MIO 95 74 99 76 / 0 0 0 0 F10 98 76 97 76 / 0 10 0 0 HHW 95 76 96 76 / 0 10 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for OKZ049-053>076. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>057-059>062- 064>067-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Monday for ARZ001-002-010- 011. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. Excessive Heat Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...67