696
FXUS64 KTSA 241532
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1032 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...New SHORT TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today)
Issued at 1032 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas of dense fog across eastern Oklahoma this morning have
dissipated, giving way to a pleasant early Fall day today for most
of the area. Highs this afternoon are forecast to range from the
mid to upper 70s across the north, where mid and upper level
cloudiness will increase through the afternoon hours, to the mid
80s across the south under mostly clear conditions. Shower and
thunderstorm chances will begin to increase later this afternoon
and into the evening as a mid level disturbance drops southeast
across the region. Most precip still looks to hold off until
around sunset. A low potential exist for a few stronger storms
with some damaging wind gusts, mainly along and west of Highway
75 this evening with any thunderstorms that develop.

Current forecast looks to still be on track, with just some minor
adjustments to hourly grids to account for the latest trends.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Showers and a few thunderstorms will become more numerous this
evening, with the greatest coverage of precipitation and best
chance of storms remaining across the western and southern parts
of the forecast area. Precipitation will be ending from north to
south during the overnight hours.

A closed upper low is forecast to become cut off just to our east
late this week into early next week. Moisture wrapping around this
low will bring rain chances back to the area late Thursday and
especially Friday, with the greatest chances in the eastern part
of the forecast area. Rain chances will then linger into the
weekend across at least far eastern Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas.

Temperatures will remain near to slightly below normal through
much of the forecast period as the upper low sits and spins just
to our east.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 557 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024

Areas of fog will continue through 14-15Z for eastern OK.
Visibility will reduce to 1/4 mile at times but will be highly
variable. In northwest and west- central AR no fog has been
observed, instead, low ceilings of around 1-2 kft will continue
through mid morning. During the late morning to early afternoon
ceilings will redevelop around 15 kft, lowering to 6-8 kft during
the late afternoon to early evening. Areas of showers are expected
to develop, with isolated thunderstorms possible for southeast
OK. Winds will be light through the period, becoming northerly by
this evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   79  57  81  56 /  20  30   0   0
FSM   83  61  82  59 /  10  40  10   0
MLC   84  58  82  54 /  10  60   0   0
BVO   78  51  81  51 /  10  20   0   0
FYV   78  52  78  50 /  10  30  10   0
BYV   77  54  78  54 /  10  20  10   0
MKO   81  56  81  55 /  10  40   0   0
MIO   76  52  78  51 /  10  20   0   0
F10   82  56  81  53 /  10  40   0   0
HHW   87  62  81  56 /   0  70  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...06