868
FXUS64 KTSA 231725
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1015 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

A few light rain showers/sprinkles formed along a weak upper-
level boundary along/south of the I-40 corridor this morning. The
shower activity may drop a couple of hundredths of an inch of
rain, at most, and should end before noon.

Otherwise, only minor adjustments have been made to the current
short-term forecast. The oppressive heat continues to be the main
headline for today. As of 10 AM, heat indices had already risen
into the lower-middle 90s for many locations across the forecast
area. Today`s Heat Advisory configuration and timing remains
valid, but will continue to monitor T/Td trends, adding additional
counties to the advisory if thresholds are met.

Mejia

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Mostly westward expansion of the upper ridge will continue today,
and will result in slightly warmer temps and a small increase in
relative humidity. Many areas across E OK and WC AR will see max
HI values of 105 or greater today. Only change to the current NPW
will be to add Okfuskee county. Otherwise the current Heat
Advisory configuration and duration look good.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Little change in the upper pattern is expected Monday, with
afternoon temps and heat indices likely to rival those that
will be seen today. Will let the next shift assess headline
requirements for Monday. The upper flow turns more northwesterly
Tuesday as the ridge centers over the SW CONUS, but once more hot
temperatures can be expected. Upper wave along with an approaching
surface boundary will increase chances for showers and storms,
mainly Tuesday night and into Wednesday. Depending on boundary
proximity and coverage of rain Wednesday, some locations may see
slightly cooler high temperatures Wednesday afternoon. This will
be short lived as the upper ridge builds back over the plains
later this week. Next weekend, slightly better mid level flow
just to the north may allow for some shower and storms to brush
parts of NE OK Saturday/Saturday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the TAF period. A few
isolated showers may develop later this afternoon, highest
potential near FSM, but chances are too low to include in the TAFs
at this time. Otherwise, a mix of mid and high clouds will
prevail areawide with light sfc winds (<10 kts).

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   98  78 100  79 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   98  78 100  78 /  10   0   0   0
MLC   97  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   97  73 100  77 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   95  73  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   95  72  98  74 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   97  77  97  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   95  73  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
F10   98  76  97  76 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   95  76  95  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for OKZ054>057-059>062-
     064>067-070>076.

AR...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...67
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...67