Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
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765 FXUS64 KTSA 211707 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1207 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (The rest of today ) Issued at 1128 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 Morning temperature and dewpoint trends are tracking similar to yesterday with slightly drier trends across portions of NE OK. Regional RAOBS support forecast high temps in the mid 90s to near 100 degrees across the region and expectation is dewpoints remain high enough to yield heat index values around 105 degrees by mid afternoon. A head advisory has been posted to reflect this scenario. Well defined outflow boundary from morning storms across SW MO currently extends across Madison into eastern Benton counties. This boundary may mix slightly eastward through the afternoon but will remain a potential focus for showers and storms later this afternoon. The current forecast has these trends shown and the update will incorporate observed trends and make only minor adjustments. && .LONG TERM... (Tonight through Friday) Issued at 150 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 During the day Sunday the upper level high that has dominated the weather of late will weaken and shift south as a positively tilted trough moves into the region, with the upper level low center moving into Kansas. Showers and storms will increase across the area as upper level diffluence spreads over the warm and humid atmosphere (850-500 hPa specific humidity near the 99th percentile for this time of year). Then, the surface cold front will move through during the afternoon and evening. Storm activity will focus near and behind this boundary, resulting in wet conditions for many Sunday afternoon into Monday morning. Although this will not be a classic severe setup, there will be sufficient instability, shear, and forcing for a marginal threat of a few borderline severe storms. In terms of rainfall, guidance leans towards a more modest event, with most areas seeing around a half inch or rain or less. High temperature forecasts Sunday are uncertain and will be dictated by the exact frontal timing. Model guidance is in good agreement that Monday will be quite cool, with most areas in the low to mid 70s. Rain chances will gradually diminish from west to east during the day. The forecast begins to become more uncertain midweek as the initial trough interacts with a second reinforcing shortwave digging into its rear. Cluster analysis shows about a 40% chance that both upper level lows will consolidate into one trough that stays over or just west of the area. In this outcome we would stay much cooler and possibly showery, with the chance of more significant rains returning towards the weekend. Another 40% of guidance sends the trough east of the area, which would result in ridging returning, and warmer and drier conditions. The last 20% of guidance shows something in between these outcomes. So there is still no preferred solution for the middle to end of next week, but any of these outcomes will still allow for much more fall-like weather than we have been seeing lately. Bumped NBM temperatures up a bit to try to get closer to the median of these two different model camps for Wednesday to Thursday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1203 PM CDT Sat Sep 21 2024 VFR conditions remain the expectation for much of the forecast period. A few possible exceptions would be a low chance of storms across far NW AR terminals this afternoon, patchy fog across western AR overnight, and additional showers and storms spreading into NE OK late tonight through mid Sunday morning. These scenarios continue to have low chances of impacting flight conditions at any specific terminal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 98 75 88 60 / 10 20 50 70 FSM 98 75 93 69 / 10 10 10 30 MLC 98 74 92 61 / 0 10 30 60 BVO 98 70 85 55 / 20 30 70 70 FYV 94 71 88 63 / 20 20 30 50 BYV 92 70 89 65 / 30 20 40 50 MKO 96 74 91 60 / 10 10 30 60 MIO 96 71 87 58 / 20 20 50 70 F10 98 74 91 59 / 10 10 30 60 HHW 97 73 93 67 / 0 10 0 20 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053>057- 059>062-064>068-070>076. AR...Heat Advisory until 6 PM CDT this evening for ARZ019-020-029. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....06 AVIATION...07