034
FXUS64 KTSA 211125
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
625 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Another warm, humid, and breezy day is on tap today ahead of an
approaching cold front. The best chance of convective initiation
by mid to late afternoon looks to be in the mid level moist axis
well ahead of the front from southeast Oklahoma into western
Arkansas. Much if not all of this activity may be elevated above a
capping inversion, but some severe threat mainly in the form of
hail may develop with this activity. Towards sunset, it is
possible that a few storms try to get going near the frontal
boundary that will be moving into northeast Oklahoma by that time.
All severe hazards will be possible with any storms that develop
in this area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 401 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

Shower and thunderstorm activity will remain possible this evening
into the overnight hours along the cold front as it sags south.
The greatest convective coverage is likely to remain across far
northeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. At least some severe
weather threat is likely to persist well into the overnight
hours.

The front will eventually stall out Wednesday somewhere in the
vicinity of the Red River. Widespread convective activity is
expected in its vicinity, with some severe threat. A flood threat
may eventually develop with time across mainly southeast Oklahoma
due to repeated rounds of convection. To the north, more scattered
elevated convection with a hail threat will be possible.

The front will lift north/wash out Thursday as an upper wave
approaches the area triggering another round of showers and
thunderstorms. Another weak frontal boundary will move across the
area following the passage of this upper wave, which may give much
of the area a break from precipitation Friday.

Another upper wave is expected to traverse the area over the
weekend bringing additional shower and storm chances. Right now,
it looks like Saturday night may be the most favored time frame
for precipitation over the weekend. Another cold front will follow
this wave Sunday, with a second reinforcing front possibly
arriving Monday night. A pattern change is then likely to develop
next week bringing a respite to the daily storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue May 21 2024

For the morning, low clouds spreading north into southeast OK will
bring a period of MVFR cigs to KMLC, with lower probability into
northeast OK sites from 14-18z. Otherwise gusty south winds
continue through afternoon ahead of a cold front. Scattered
thunderstorms may develop well ahead of the front from SE OK into
NW AR around 21z, but more probable development near the front by
around 00Z over NW AR and far NE OK. Evolution of storms late in
the forecast period remains rather uncertain, though do expect
MVFR ceilings to become more widespread by early Wednesday
morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   89  63  76  63 /  20  40  50  50
FSM   89  70  82  68 /  40  40  80  80
MLC   87  69  80  65 /  20  30  70  70
BVO   89  59  77  58 /  10  20  40  30
FYV   86  64  76  62 /  40  60  80  70
BYV   87  63  77  62 /  40  60  80  70
MKO   87  65  77  63 /  20  30  70  70
MIO   86  59  74  61 /  50  50  60  50
F10   87  64  75  63 /  20  20  70  70
HHW   87  71  83  67 /  30  20  70  70

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14