166
FXUS64 KTSA 170650
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
150 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Heat and humidity continue today, with slightly above normal
afternoon temperatures expected. A tight pressure gradient will
keep gusty southerly winds in place during the afternoon, with the
highest gusts in the 25 to 30 mph range. Increasing moisture
across the eastern fringes of the forecast area along the western
edge of the upper level high in the southeastern United States,
could lead to a few isolated diurnal thunderstorms mainly across
parts of northwest and west central Arkansas. Overall, though,
expect dry weather to persist in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 149 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Through roughly the middle part of this work week, the region
should be squeezed between upper level troughing in the northern
Rockies, upper level ridging in the east and a tropical low in the
western Gulf of Mexico that should eventually move north to
northwest across Mexico. The further north that the tropical
system moves, the more impact it will have to parts of eastern
Oklahoma toward mid week - including rain chances, increased cloud
cover and lower temperatures. The more northern influence offered
by the NAM appears to be a notable outlier at this point and will
be largely discarded in favor of the drier and warmer remainder
of the model suite and the NBM offering.

Upper level high pressure will extend into the area once again
toward the weekend, signaling a return to increasing heat and
humidity. Through much of this period, opted to reduce forecast
highs from the NBM initialization more toward MOS guidance and
also to raise dew points some, leveraging the raw model consensus
blend. Heat indices during this time frame will at least flirt
with Heat Advisory criteria. A weakness in the upper level high
late in the weekend and into early next week will lead to low
shower and thunderstorm chances for mainly parts of northeast
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Mon Jun 17 2024

Clear or mostly clear conditions will prevail through the
overnight hours with light southerly winds mostly in the 5-10 kt
range. During the day Monday a few low level cumulus clouds may
develop once again near 5 kft with some high cloudiness as well
late in the day. Winds will be breezy Monday, gusting to 20-25 kts
out of the south for most terminals. An isolated pop up shower may
occur for the northwest AR terminals (10-15% chance), but the main
impacts would be from gusty and erratic outflow winds. Confidence
is too low to include in the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   93  77  91  73 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   93  76  91  73 /  10   0  10   0
MLC   90  74  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   93  76  91  70 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   90  73  87  69 /  10   0  10   0
BYV   91  71  88  69 /  10   0  20   0
MKO   91  74  90  72 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   91  73  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
F10   90  73  90  71 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   88  73  89  70 /  10   0  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...06