349
FXUS64 KTSA 240530
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 911 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

Heat Index values continue to slowly fall, though a few still are
right around the century mark at 9 PM. Today`s advisory has
expired accordingly. Have also removed any mention of thunderstorms
for this evening. More dangerously hot and humid weather Monday
with headlines covering all of eastern OK and western AR.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024

The heat intensifies on Monday, with afternoon heat indices
expected to climb into the 105 to 111 degree range. The lower Ark
River valley of west-central Arkansas, including FSM, could see
heat warning criteria. Therefore, have issued an Excessive Heat
Watch there, and Heat Advisories elsewhere. After what looks like
another day of heat headlines Tuesday, the mid-level ridge will
shift far enough west, at least briefly, to allow for increased
storm chances Tuesday night into Wednesday. If an MCS were to
organize and plow south across the area, it would provide some
relief from the heat, with the caveat that it could bring some
spotty damaging wind also. After storm chances on Wednesday with a
weak front, the ridge aloft will rebuild east back overhead for
the latter part of the week. Storm chances will return by the
weekend as another boundary approaches from the north in a less
amplified upper flow pattern across the CONUS.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period for all
sites. Southerly sfc winds increase to near 10-15 kts during the
late morning and afternoon hours. Otherwise, scattered mid/ high
clouds are forecast with a very low chance (<10%) of an isolated
shower during the afternoon across E-Central OK & W-Central AR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  101  81  99  78 /   0   0  10  30
FSM  100  78  99  77 /  10   0  10  20
MLC   97  77  97  77 /   0   0   0  20
BVO  101  75  99  74 /   0   0  10  40
FYV   98  72  96  73 /   0   0  10  30
BYV   99  74  96  72 /  10   0  10  40
MKO   98  77  97  77 /   0   0  10  30
MIO   99  76  96  73 /   0   0  10  40
F10   97  76  97  76 /   0   0  10  20
HHW   96  76  95  76 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053>076.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011.

     Excessive Heat Watch from noon CDT today through this evening
     for ARZ019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...43