074
FXUS65 KTWC 082100
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST Sat Jun 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonable heat within a few degrees of average to
start the new week before high pressure brings hotter temperatures
again by mid week. A slight chance of mainly dry thunderstorms in
the afternoons for the far eastern mountains throughout the
weekend, otherwise dry conditions.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A weak low is shearing into the front of a modest
trough pushing through the region. A little mid level moisture for
a few buildups over the eastern mountains in the afternoons the
next couple of days with very limited precip. Keeping an eye out
for dry lightning fire starts as outlined in the fire weather
section below. A little extra on the breezy gusts this afternoon,
but below headlines.

Temperatures falling back to within 2 or 3 degrees of climo to
start the new week, then another scenario with strong high
pressure building in from Mexico into the desert southwest Tuesday
into Thursday. Heights and thicknesses may support more heat
headlines for that period as afternoon highs once again
approach record levels. Tucson potentially making another run at
110 Wednesday or Thursday.

Another low lifting into Southern CA could bring breezy conditions
Thursday, while also taking a few degrees off of the heat. Likely
still several degrees above average though.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 10/00Z.
Clear skies to SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL west of KTUS thru the
forecast period, with FEW-SCT clouds at 10k-14k ft AGL and SCT-BKN
clouds AOA 20K ft AGL east of KTUS. There will be a slight chance of
-SHRA/-TSRA mainly east of a KALK to KSOW line thru 09/03Z and again
aft 09/18Z. SFC wind SLY/SWLY at 12-17 kts, with gusts to 20-27 kts
thru 09/02Z and again aft 09/17Z. SFC wind less than 10 kts and
variable in direction between 09/02Z and 09/17Z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Mid level moisture in place will result in a slight
chance of mainly dry thunderstorms east of Tucson through Sunday.
These storms will generally be dry and may produce gusty and erratic
winds along with lightning. High temperatures will be 2-4 degrees
above normal through early next week, warming to around 10 degrees
above normal by mid week. Expect min RH values of 4-9 percent in the
lower elevations and 8-15 percent in the mountains through the
middle of next week, along with poor overnight recoveries between 20-
35 percent in most locations. Outside of any thunderstorm outflows,
20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal patterns through the
middle of next week, with afternoon/early evening gustiness due to
strong surface heating. Sustained 20-foot wind speeds will generally
be 15 mph or less, except for some elevated winds at 15-20 mph and
gusts to around 30 mph Sunday afternoon and early evening to the
southeast of Tucson.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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