195
FXUS65 KTWC 070841
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
141 AM MST Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will bring hot temperatures today and
then a few degrees above normal through the weekend. An Excessive
Heat Warning is in effect for today. A weather system will bring
a modest moisture increase today into the weekend, with a chance
of thunderstorms each afternoon mainly near the eastern mountains.
Rainfall should be limited, with strong and erratic winds being
the main threat along with lightning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows scattered to broken high
clouds over southeast Arizona with a High Pressure Center over
eastern New Mexico as well as an upper level low off the Baja
California coast. The high clouds will keep our morning low
temperatures elevated, coupled with the urban heat island effect.
Tucson is sitting at 84 degrees at this 1am. Warm morning indeed
and it will only cool a few more degrees before the sun comes up.

Today, temperatures will shoot back up to similar temperatures to
yesterday. The Excessive Heat Warning is still in effect through
8 pm today. The cloud cover will stick around as well due to an
increase in upper level moisture. With that, there is better
instability in the eastern part of the state to support cloud
builds to thunderstorms. Dry air dominates the lower levels and
making the storms producing mainly virga. The HREF wind gust
probabilities has a signal for outflows from storms along the New
Mexico border to the start of the Mogollon Rim. The main hazards
from these storms will be gusty winds and lighting.

Through the weekend, temperatures will be a few degrees above
seasonal normal. Storm chances will be decrease each day even
though the weak low will track across the region to provide some
diffluence in the upper levels. The instability will be low, but
a few build ups are possible along the eastern mountains.

Next week, a similar pattern will set up with an upper low off
the Baja coast and high pressure building over the region.
Otherwise, promising signs of better moisture moving slowly up the
Mexican Pacific coast for the start of the monsoon. This may take
another week or so to fully bring the moisture into the region.
Fingers cross.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 08/12Z.
BKN high cloudiness AOA 20K ft AGL through of the forecast period.
FEW-SCT to locally BKN mid level clouds AOA 10K ft AGL developing
after 07/18Z through the forecast period. Slight chance of
-TSRA mainly near mountains and east of KTUs after 07/20z to
08/03Z. Typical wind patterns generally under 10 kts, with some
gustiness from the west and northwest in the afternoon hours.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot temperatures today with temperatures near
record highs with an Excessive Heat Warning through 8pm MST.
Temperatures will be 2-5 degrees above normal through the weekend
and into the new week. Minimum RH values in the single digits in
the valleys with poor overnight recoveries. A slight increase in
moisture in the upper levels to bring mainly dry thunderstorms
today in Cochise County and towards the White Mountains. Storm
chances decrease through the weekend. These storms will generally
be dry and can produce gusty and erratic winds along with
lightning. Outside of thunderstorms, winds generally remain light
through the remainder of the weekend and into the new week, with
some afternoon breeziness.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST this evening for
AZZ501>509.

&&

$$

KJS

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