561
FXUS65 KTWC 102031
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
131 PM MST Mon Jun 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Seasonable temperatures today, then excessive heat
returns Tuesday through Thursday as high pressure results in very
hot temperatures. Slight cooling Friday into the weekend but
temperatures still a few degrees above normal. Generally dry
conditions through the forecast period with a slight chance of
thunderstorms in the eastern mountains late in the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure will build in through much of
the desert southwest over the next 72 hours, with heights and
thicknesses supporting near record high temperatures across SE AZ
Tuesday through Thursday. Excessive Heat Warning in effect for
those days with overnight lows well above average. Tucson Airport
should make another run at 110 Wednesday and Thursday.

Ensembles suggest a low currently near the central Baja coast
will regain some higher latitude support Thursday and lift up the
western flank of the ridge into southern California and western to
northern AZ Friday. As a result, Temps will drop off several
degrees Friday with breezy conditions across the area. In
addition, a modest primarily mid level moisture increase could
bring a few buildups and isolated mainly dry high based
thunderstorms near the eastern mountains Thursday and Friday.
Likely very limited precip with what will likely still be a
relatively dry subcloud layer, but dry lightning a concern as
outlined in the fire weather section below.

Weak troughiness through much of the west may not be enough to
keep our temperatures down as they should continue above climo
over the weekend into next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 12/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 9k-13k ft AGL east of a KDUG to KSOW line thru
11/04Z. Otherwise, FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru 11/18Z and
clear skies aft 11/18Z thru the remainder of the forecast period.
SFC wind generally less than 12 kts thru this forecast cycle,
favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening
hours and variable in direction at other times. Some afternoon gusts
to around 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Hot temperatures through the week, with high
temperatures 7-10 degrees above normal Tuesday through Thursday and
then 3-6 degrees above normal Friday through the weekend. Limited
mid level moisture will result in a slight chance of mainly dry
thunderstorms east of Tucson Thursday and Friday. These storms may
produce gusty and erratic winds, along with lightning. Expect min RH
values of 3-9 percent in the lower elevations and 7-15 percent in
the mountains through this weekend, along with poor overnight
recoveries between 20-35 percent in most locations. Outside of any
thunderstorm outflows, 20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal
patterns, with afternoon/early evening gustiness due to strong
surface heating. Sustained 20-foot wind speeds will generally be 15
mph or less through Wednesday, with elevated winds at 15-20 mph and
gusts to around 30 mph to the east/southeast of Tucson Thursday
through the weekend. The strongest 20-foot winds continue to be on
Friday, with wind speeds near or at critical levels to the east of
Tucson.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Thursday
for AZZ501>509.

&&

$$



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