693
FXUS65 KTWC 170907
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
207 AM MST Fri May 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with hotter temperatures into the weekend. A weak
trough will knock temperatures back down to near seasonal averages
next week along with breezy conditions at times.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The weak low and saggy trough that brought isolated
convection to the area will shift eastward today with a shortwave
ridge building in from the west. Drier, with temperatures climbing
to 4-8 degrees above climo into Monday. Saturday should be the
hottest day, with a chance at the first 100 degree day of the year
for Tucson.

Another weakness in the flow from the eastern Pacific will be
drawn eastward with a trough digging into the region early next
week. This will knock temps back down closer to climo by Tuesday
and bring another modest and temporary moisture increase. Don`t be
surprised if we see another round of isolated high based
convection late Monday or so.

A broad zonal flow for SE AZ the second half of the week, with
a late transition season storm track well north of our area and
broad high pressure over central and southern Mexico to our south.
Early hurricane season tropical activity possible south of Mexico
with favorable shear and SSTs to support easterly impulses under
the high.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds at 8k-11k ft AGL thru 17/12Z with FEW-SCT again after
17/20Z. SFC winds less than 12 kts and variable in direction thru
17/17Z becoming WLY/NWLY thereafter with speeds of 8-16 kts and
gusts to around 25 kts. The strongest winds are expected east of
KTUS in the vicinity of KSAD. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry weather returns today with high temperatures
warming to 3-5 degrees above normal. Tomorrow and Sunday, highs will
warm further running 6-9 degrees above normal before lowering back
to within a couple of degrees of normal next Tuesday. Min RH values
in the valleys will be in the 10-20 percent range this afternoon and
then in the single digits to lower teens Saturday into the middle of
next week, with values in the mountains between 20-35 percent this
afternoon and 10-20 percent Saturday through the middle of next
week. 20-foot winds will generally follow typical diurnal wind
trends through early next week, with afternoon and early evening
gustiness due to strong surface heating. The strongest 20-foot winds
will be this afternoon and next Monday, especially to the east of
Tucson, with wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph.
West-northwest winds are expected this afternoon, with southwest-
west winds on Monday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$


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