Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
447 FXUS65 KTWC 202046 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 146 PM MST Fri Sep 20 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy and dry conditions with temperatures near seasonal normal to below normal today and Saturday. Temperatures will warm to above normal on Sunday and into the new week with areas from Tucson westward possibly seeing 100 degree highs. && .DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a closed low moving through southern California with high pressure centered over Texas. The low will progress eastward today into Arizona leading to gusty southwest winds this afternoon and evening. Winds have already started to pick up with expected wind speeds 15-25 mph and gusts 30-40 mph. Temperatures will be right around normal for this time of year, which will mean Tucson`s streak of 90 degree highs or higher increases to 127. However this will likely come to an end tomorrow as cooler air moves in behind the closed low. NBM is showing a 95 percent chance for the low at the Tucson airport to be less than 90 degrees tomorrow. The current forecasted temperatures is 86. Winds Saturday will also be breezy mainly east of Tucson with gusts to 30 mph. As the low moves east this weekend heights begin to rise as a ridge builds over the West Coast. Ensembles keep this ridge over the Southwest for the majority of the work week. This will lead to a warmup that begins Sunday when temperatures will be around normal. By the middle of the work week highs will be 5-8 degrees above normal. Tucson will be flirting with 100 degrees as early as Tuesday with the best chances currently Wednesday into Friday where NBM probabilities range from 30-70 percent across the Tucson metro. Conditions are expected to be dry with the exception of the White Mountains Wednesday afternoon, where PoPs are 15-20 percent. && .AVIATION...Valid through 22/00Z. SKC through majority of the forecast period with FEW low level clouds at or around 10-12k ft AGL developing after 21/03 to the end of the forecast period. SFC winds southwesterly this afternoon and early evening with speeds 12-18 kts and gusts 25-30 kts. After 21/04z, SFC winds return to variable and less than 10 kts with winds again increasing Saturday afternoon to 10-15 kts. Strongest winds tomorrow will be at terminals east of KTUS. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with temperatures around normal today then a few degrees below normal Saturday. Today, breezy 20-foot south-southwesterly winds with speeds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to around 30 mph and locally higher in wind prone areas. Tomorrow`s winds will lessen down to 10 to 15 mph and mainly east of Tucson. Min RHs will generally be 15 to 20 percent in the lower locations and 20 to 30 percent in the higher locations. Starting Sunday, high pressure ridge will bring warmer temperatures and lighter winds through next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson