Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
182 FXUS65 KTWC 150934 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 234 AM MST Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Hot weekend with an Excessive Heat warning in effect for portions of southeastern Arizona. Temperatures decrease a bit early next week before likely heating up again by Thursday. Moisture may begin to increase late next week which would bring the potential for high-based thunderstorms. && .DISCUSSION...A clear sky prevailed across southern Arizona per latest satellite imagery. With yesterdays upper level trof to our east, high pressure will be building over the area this weekend with temperatures heating up once again. Most of the lower elevations will be under an Excessive Heat Warning this weekend. Monday: Next Pacific trof moves inland bringing gusty winds to the area which may lead to some fire weather issues. See fire weather section below for details. High temperatures will be 2 to 6 degrees cooler than Sunday. Tuesday and Wednesday: Trofiness hangs over the western CONUS for afternoon gusty winds. Highs Tuesday will be near normal then be 2 to 4 degrees hotter on Wednesday. Thursday and Friday: High pressure builds in from the east bringing hotter temperatures to the area with current forecast highs being the hottest for most of the area so far in 2024. There are some GEFS/EPS members indicating that it could be hotter with near records highs. At this time, I didn`t deviate from the NBM temperature guidance. What is interesting at end of next week is the moisture increase potential bringing a slight chance of mainly high-based mostly dry thunderstorms which may continue into next weekend. && .AVIATION...Valid through 16/12Z. SKC. SFC winds terrain driven less than 10 kts thru 15/16z and then again after 16/04z. At other times, NWLY/WLY 10-15 kts with gusts up to 22 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Hot and dry conditions continue this weekend. Winds should be lighter but typical afternoon breeziness is still expected. Minimum relative humidities this weekend will range from 4 to 9 percent in the lower elevations and 9 to 14 percent in the mountains. Winds increase on Monday for a few areas near critical fire weather thresholds, but not widespread enough at this time to warrant a watch to be issued at this time. Heating back up next Thursday and Friday with hottest temperatures of 2024 possible. Also at the end of next week there are signs that there will be an increase in moisture that may lead to a slight chance of high based mostly dry thunderstorms mainly over the higher terrain of Graham, Greenlee and Cochise counties. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST Sunday for AZZ504>506-509. Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ501-502. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson