538
FXUS65 KTWC 220900
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 AM MST Sun Sep 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and a warming trend of temperatures.
High pressure will push temperatures back to well above average
for the coming week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A cooler morning to start the day for Southeast
Arizona. A low pressure center located over Colorado will continue
to move downstream and high pressure will start to build over the
region starting today.

Ensemble models are in lock step agreement of the high pressure
building over the region for most of the work week. They also show
higher height anomalies across the region. Another note, the
ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index has 70% of members and a shift of
tails for warmer than normal temperatures. A decent signal for
warmer than normal temperatures across the region. Temperatures
will be climbing 4 and upward to 10 degrees above normal for the
end of September. Tucson will be 1 to 3 degrees of record highs
towards the end of the week. Thus, areas Tucson west will be at or
near 100 degrees and east will be in the 90s. Therefore, Moderate
Heat Risk for areas Tucson and west starting Wednesday and
through at least Saturday.

Ahead, high pressure will break just a bit towards the end of the
week and into the weekend. Ensemble models have some troughiness
developing up west and east of the ridge. There are some varying
differences on the depth and placement of the troughs, but it will
help bring temperature down a bit due to lower thickness values.
It will still be a few degrees above normal into the first week of
October.


&&

.AVIATION...valid through 23/12z.
SKC. SFC winds will generally be less than 10 kts and mainly
terrain driven throughout the period. Occasional afternoon gust
up to 15-18 kts is possible. Aviation discussion not updated for
TAF amendments.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with a warming trend of above
normal temperatures through the new week. Temperatures will be
4-10 degrees above seasonal normals and peaking by the end of the
week. 20-foot winds will generally be less than 15 mph with the
occasional afternoon gust. Min RHs will generally be teens percent
in the lower locations and twenties percent in the higher
locations.


&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Strongman


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