Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
722 FXUS65 KTWC 180922 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 222 AM MST Wed Sep 18 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Breezy and dry conditions with temperatures a few degrees cooler than normal through the work week. Temperatures are forecast to warm above normal again Sunday into next week. && .DISCUSSION... With the western United States under broad cyclonic flow, generally below normal temperatures and dry conditions are forecast across southern Arizona through the remainder of the work week. With a modest pressure gradient under increased flow aloft, afternoon breeziness can also be expected. Temperatures rise to around normal on Thursday ahead of an approaching trough, then come back down on Saturday as the trough crosses. Moisture should remain well east of the area with this trough passage, keeping the forecast dry. Looking at next week, ensemble mid-level height anomalies range from near to above normal, then more likely above normal by the end of the week. Surface temperature anomalies reflect the same trend as temperatures will likely be above normal through the remainder of the month. Deterministic guidance shows signs of a closed low in the region mid to late next week, which may impact the temperature forecast away from this trend. That said, this forecast low isn`t accompanied with a notable cold push and is still washed out in the ensemble mean height field, which keeps the forecast on the warmer side for now. Some low-end moisture may creep back in from the east next week as well however overall precipitation probabilities remain low. && .AVIATION...Valid through 19/12Z FEW clouds around 6k feet through 18/14Z this morning, then mostly SKC with some high cirrus through the forecast period. South to southeasterly winds increase to 10 to 14 kts with gusts to 20 kts after 18/16Z, then light and variable after 19/03Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER... Dry conditions with temperatures near to a few degrees below normal forecast through the work week. Minimum relative humidity down to 15 to 20 percent in lower elevations with 20 to 35 percent in higher elevations. South to southwesterly winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph through Friday, then becoming west to northwesterly on Saturday. Building high pressure will bring lighter winds and above normal temperatures Sunday into next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Public...Edwards Aviation...Edwards Fire Weather....Edwards Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson