447
FXUS65 KTWC 202046
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
146 PM MST Fri Sep 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Breezy and dry conditions with temperatures near
seasonal normal to below normal today and Saturday. Temperatures
will warm to above normal on Sunday and into the new week with
areas from Tucson westward possibly seeing 100 degree highs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Water vapor imagery shows a closed low moving through
southern California with high pressure centered over Texas. The
low will progress eastward today into Arizona leading to gusty
southwest winds this afternoon and evening. Winds have already
started to pick up with expected wind speeds 15-25 mph and gusts
30-40 mph. Temperatures will be right around normal for this time
of year, which will mean Tucson`s streak of 90 degree highs or
higher increases to 127. However this will likely come to an end
tomorrow as cooler air moves in behind the closed low. NBM is
showing a 95 percent chance for the low at the Tucson airport to
be less than 90 degrees tomorrow. The current forecasted
temperatures is 86. Winds Saturday will also be breezy mainly east
of Tucson with gusts to 30 mph.

As the low moves east this weekend heights begin to rise as a
ridge builds over the West Coast. Ensembles keep this ridge over
the Southwest for the majority of the work week. This will lead to
a warmup that begins Sunday when temperatures will be around
normal. By the middle of the work week highs will be 5-8 degrees
above normal. Tucson will be flirting with 100 degrees as early as
Tuesday with the best chances currently Wednesday into Friday
where NBM probabilities range from 30-70 percent across the Tucson
metro. Conditions are expected to be dry with the exception of
the White Mountains Wednesday afternoon, where PoPs are 15-20
percent.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 22/00Z.
SKC through majority of the forecast period with FEW low level
clouds at or around 10-12k ft AGL developing after 21/03 to the
end of the forecast period. SFC winds southwesterly this afternoon
and early evening with speeds 12-18 kts and gusts 25-30 kts.
After 21/04z, SFC winds return to variable and less than 10 kts
with winds again increasing Saturday afternoon to 10-15 kts.
Strongest winds tomorrow will be at terminals east of KTUS.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions with temperatures around normal
today then a few degrees below normal Saturday. Today, breezy
20-foot south-southwesterly winds with speeds of 15 to 20 mph
with gusts up to around 30 mph and locally higher in wind prone
areas. Tomorrow`s winds will lessen down to 10 to 15 mph and
mainly east of Tucson. Min RHs will generally be 15 to 20 percent
in the lower locations and 20 to 30 percent in the higher
locations. Starting Sunday, high pressure ridge will bring warmer
temperatures and lighter winds through next week.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

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