471
FXUS65 KTWC 292033
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
133 PM MST Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures continue in the near term with high
temperatures peaking on Monday when an Extreme Heat Warning is in
effect for portions of southeast Arizona. Monsoon moisture will
increase this week with the main threats Monday and Tuesday being
gusty winds and blowing dust, then transitioning to a heavy rain and
flash flood threat Wednesday and Thursday. While shower and
thunderstorm chances continue Independence Day and the weekend,
coverage is expected to decrease. Temperatures will drop to near
normal levels Wednesday, then below normal to end the week.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

-Temperatures peak Monday with highs of 108 to 114 degrees in the
 deserts including Tucson and Upper Gila River Valley. An Extreme
 Heat Warning is in effect Monday for these locales.

-Temperatures will drop to near normal levels Wednesday, then
 below normal to end the week

-Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly east of
 Tucson Monday, then from Sells eastward Tuesday. Main threats
 Monday and Tuesday focused on gusty winds and blowing dust.

-Beginning Wednesday, storms transition towards heavy rain and
 flash flooding through Thursday. Storms will be focused Sells
 eastward.

-Shower and thunderstorm chances continue Independence Day and
 next weekend but less coverage compared to Wednesday and
 Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION... Clouds continue to form along the Sky Islands
Tucson eastward. Enough moisture will push into eastern Cochise
and Greenlee counties this afternoon to have slight chances (10 to
15%) for showers and storms to develop though they will likely be
sub-severe. High pressure is centered over the central Arizona/
New Mexico line leading to above normal high temperatures around
105-110 degrees today and 108-114 degrees tomorrow with Moderate
to Minor HeatRisk both days. An Extreme Heat Warning remains in
effect for Monday from 10 AM to 8 PM MST for Pima, SE Pinal and
the Upper Gila Valley region of Graham County.

This week we will transition into a more pronounced Monsoonal
pattern leading to everyday chances for storms and showers
starting Monday. Early in the week, Monday and Tuesday, the high
pressure will have shifted to the northeast generating easterly
mid-level flow pulling moisture into Cochise/ Graham/ Greenlee
counties. Surface heating along with PWAT`s around an 1 inch will
be enough for storms and showers to develop. Due to lack of deep
moisture, storms that develop will produce gusty outflow winds
and localized blowing dust with light rainfall. 12Z HREF 40km
neighborhood probabilities show a 70% chance of wind gusts
greater than 30kts across Graham/Greenlee/Cochise Counties by late
afternoon Monday and a 10% chance of 50kts.

Tuesday, more moisture moves into area pushing storms westward.
Surface dewpoints will increase into mid to upper 50s from the
mid 40s on Monday and PWATs will be up to 1.3 inches. The high
pressure that shifted northeast Monday will weaken some but still
encourage suitable heating for storm development Tuesday
afternoon. Impacts associated with Tuesday`s storms will be
similar to Monday; strong outflow winds and blowing dust with
locally moderate to heavy rainfall.

Deeper moisture will move in Wednesday and Thursday. Moisture
will be brought in from Sonora and the Gulf of California that newly
named Tropical Storm Flossie, currently located off the coast of
southern Mexico, will send northward. This will increase surface
dewpoints into the 60s and PWATs will be around 1.3 to 1.7 inches
for much for the area, increasing the concern for flash flooding.
A drier trough will begin to push into the region Thursday and
Friday introducing some uncertainty. Thursday still looks to have
chances for afternoon storms and showers with the main concern
being flash flooding and strong outflow winds.

By Friday, the aforementioned low moving in from the west will
bring drier conditions dropping PWATs back down to around 1 to
1.2 inches and a more south to southwest flow. Latest model runs
suggest storms and showers will be less widespread compared the
previous days. As we get closer to the end of the week, there will
be more confidence how 4th of July will unfold. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/00Z.
FEW to SCT clouds AOA 10-15k ft AGL along the Sky Islands
otherwise SKC. Clouds will become more widespread extending KTUS
eastward AOA 10-15k ft AGL lasting until 30/04Z. Aft 30/04Z clouds
will dissipate to FEW AOA 10-15k FT AGL focused closer to KOLS,
KDUG, and KSAD. By 30/16Z mostly SKC conditions across the area.
SFC winds will be from the northwest at about 10 to 12 kts with
gusts to 20 kts. Overnight winds will weaken becoming light and
variable. SFC winds pick up tomorrow afternoon aft 30/20Z at 5 to
8kts from the east to southeast. There is a chance for
thunderstorms in the afternoon between 30/20Z to 01/03Z east of
KTUS. Storms that develop may produce gusty outflow winds greater
than 30 kts with reduced visibility due to localized blowing dust.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Warmer temperatures and generally dry conditions
today with isolated showers and thunderstorms this weekend will
mainly be confined along the International Border in Cochise County.
Minimum relative humidities from 10 to 20 percent through Monday,
then increasing to 15 to 30 percent Tuesday and Wednesday and 25 to
50 percent Thursday and Friday. Winds generally light and under 15
mph with isolated gusts up to 45 mph under any thunderstorms.
Moisture will be on the increase this week with typical early
monsoon season threats of gusty winds and lightning with lack of
wetting rains through Monday and Tuesday. However, widespread rain
chances due to additional moisture move in Wednesday and Thursday
with the threats transitioning to heavy rain and flash flooding.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM to 8 PM MST Monday for AZZ501-
502-504>506-509.

&&

$$

Malarkey

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