735
FXUS65 KTWC 310909
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
209 AM MST Fri May 31 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High temperatures will be above normal over the next
seven days as we close out May and begin June. Typical afternoon and
early evening breeziness due to strong solar heating.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Not much change in the weather pattern through at
least the middle of next week, with high pressure over northern
Mexico and the southwestern United States and the storm track well
north along the Canadian border and in southern Canada. This is a
fairly typical pattern for the end of May/beginning of June. This
will lead to mostly clear skies and just some passing cirrus clouds
at times, with high temperatures 2-5 degrees above normal through
Tuesday of next week. Afternoon and early evening breeziness is
expected each day due to the strong solar/surface heating. The
strongest sustained wind speeds through at least the middle of next
week will be east of Tucson on Sunday, where southwest to west winds
of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph are expected.

For the middle to end of next week, a weak upper low develops near
the Baja Spur and the upper ridge becomes more amplified from west
Texas northwestward across the Intermountain west. This will lead to
warmer temperatures the second half of next week, resulting in
increased heat risk concerns. NBM probabilities for 105 degrees in
Tucson next Thursday and Friday remains at 25%-30%. The models also
continue to show southerly flow developing across Arizona and New
Mexico between the upper low to our west and high pressure to our
east late next week. This will allow for some mid level moisture to
be advected into the region from the south/southeast, resulting in a
slight chance of mainly dry thunderstorms across the eastern half of
the forecast area Thursday and Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 01/12Z.
Clear skies/SKC conditions to a FEW clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru the
forecast period. SFC wind less than 10 kts and variable in direction
thru 31/18Z and again aft 01/03Z. SWLY/WLY SFC wind at 8-14 kts and
gusts to 14-24 kts between 31/18Z and 01/03Z. Aviation discussion
not updated for TAF amendments

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and high temperatures 2-5 degrees
above normal will continue through early next week. Expect min RH
values of 3-8 percent in the lower elevations and 8-15 percent in
the mountains the next 7 days, with poor overnight recoveries
between 20-30 percent in most locations. 20-foot winds will follow
typical diurnal patterns into early next week, with afternoon/early
evening gustiness due to strong surface heating. Sustained 20-foot
wind speeds will generally be 15 mph or less, except for the
potential for some elevated winds at 15-20 mph Sunday afternoon east
of Tucson.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

Zell

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