Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
561 FXUS65 KTWC 102031 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 131 PM MST Mon Jun 10 2024 .SYNOPSIS...Seasonable temperatures today, then excessive heat returns Tuesday through Thursday as high pressure results in very hot temperatures. Slight cooling Friday into the weekend but temperatures still a few degrees above normal. Generally dry conditions through the forecast period with a slight chance of thunderstorms in the eastern mountains late in the week. && .DISCUSSION...Strong high pressure will build in through much of the desert southwest over the next 72 hours, with heights and thicknesses supporting near record high temperatures across SE AZ Tuesday through Thursday. Excessive Heat Warning in effect for those days with overnight lows well above average. Tucson Airport should make another run at 110 Wednesday and Thursday. Ensembles suggest a low currently near the central Baja coast will regain some higher latitude support Thursday and lift up the western flank of the ridge into southern California and western to northern AZ Friday. As a result, Temps will drop off several degrees Friday with breezy conditions across the area. In addition, a modest primarily mid level moisture increase could bring a few buildups and isolated mainly dry high based thunderstorms near the eastern mountains Thursday and Friday. Likely very limited precip with what will likely still be a relatively dry subcloud layer, but dry lightning a concern as outlined in the fire weather section below. Weak troughiness through much of the west may not be enough to keep our temperatures down as they should continue above climo over the weekend into next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 12/00Z. FEW-SCT clouds at 9k-13k ft AGL east of a KDUG to KSOW line thru 11/04Z. Otherwise, FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL thru 11/18Z and clear skies aft 11/18Z thru the remainder of the forecast period. SFC wind generally less than 12 kts thru this forecast cycle, favoring a WLY/NWLY direction during the afternoon/early evening hours and variable in direction at other times. Some afternoon gusts to around 20 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Hot temperatures through the week, with high temperatures 7-10 degrees above normal Tuesday through Thursday and then 3-6 degrees above normal Friday through the weekend. Limited mid level moisture will result in a slight chance of mainly dry thunderstorms east of Tucson Thursday and Friday. These storms may produce gusty and erratic winds, along with lightning. Expect min RH values of 3-9 percent in the lower elevations and 7-15 percent in the mountains through this weekend, along with poor overnight recoveries between 20-35 percent in most locations. Outside of any thunderstorm outflows, 20-foot winds will follow typical diurnal patterns, with afternoon/early evening gustiness due to strong surface heating. Sustained 20-foot wind speeds will generally be 15 mph or less through Wednesday, with elevated winds at 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph to the east/southeast of Tucson Thursday through the weekend. The strongest 20-foot winds continue to be on Friday, with wind speeds near or at critical levels to the east of Tucson. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Excessive Heat Warning from 11 AM Tuesday to 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ501>509. && $$ Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson