Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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581 FXUS63 KUNR 101920 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 120 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe weather is developing early this afternoon, with the primary hazards being locally heavy rainfall, large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado threat. - Near to above average temperatures with near daily chances for showers and storms through the end of the week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday) Issued at 1253 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 19Z upper level analysis has strong short wave entering the Northern Plains at the moment. Severe thunderstorm watch 404 has been issued, with strong to severe storms ongoing. At the surface, strong southerly boundary layer winds are ongoing, with a strong frontal boundary crossing Northeast Wyoming. Temperatures are in the 70s. Upper level wave will continue to cross the area today into tonight, with strong to severe storms crossing western SD this afternoon, and eventually exiting the forecast area early this evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are likely with some of these storms. Best chances of an isolated tornado will be across northwestern SD through mid afternoon. Broad upper level ridge then takes over for Tuesday into Thursday with mostly dry conditions expected. Only isolated storms are expected from Wednesday into Thursday. Closed upper low lifts across the area on Friday with better chances for storms. Upper ridge builds across the northern Plains into the weekend, with scattered storms possible each day. Temperatures will remain at or above average through the weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday) Issued At 1030 AM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024 Local MVFR cigs over the Black Hills will continue to dissipate late this morning. A few high based showers/storms will continue into early afternoon but mainly VFR conditions will prevail. By 19Z-20Z, a cold front will move into the region, resulting in strong to severe thunderstorms developing over northeast WY and far western SD, then spreading eastward across western SD into central SD later this afternoon and early evening. IFR conditions likely in stronger storms along with large hail and damaging winds. Storms are expected to exit the CWA by 05Z, with VFR conditions returning, with relatively light westerly winds. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15 AVIATION...Pojorlie