Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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685 FXUS63 KUNR 041714 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 1114 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cooler today with isolated to widely scattered showers/storms in the morning and gusty westerly winds across northwest South Dakota. - Strong west to northwest winds likely on Wednesday across northwest into portions of west central South Dakota. - Warm weather expected through the weekend with chances for showers and storms returning by the weekend. && .DISCUSSION...(Today Through Monday) Issued at 248 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Current surface analysis has cold front moving across western SD, with winds switching to the west and northwest and becoming gusty for a brief period behind it. Upper level analysis shows southwest flow across the northern Plains, ahead of trough moving across southern AB, southern SK, and MT. Post frontal showers and a bit of lightning are moving across parts of northeast WY to northwest SD, with a few showers clipping south central SD as well. Skies are mostly cloudy with warm temps in the upper 50s to around 70 degrees. Upper trough moves over the northern high Plains and south central Canada today, with isolated to scattered showers passing through areas mostly near and north of I-90 through the morning hours. Showers should exit the forecast area by midday, with decreasing clouds. Winds will be breezy for much of the day behind the front, with the gustiest winds across northwest SD late this morning and afternoon. Some gusts to near 45 mph are likely there, as well as possibly over the adjacent plains east and northeast of the Black Hills. Temps will drop back to near seasonable levels, with highs mostly in the upper 60s to mid 70s. As a surface low moves across southern Canada midweek, pressure gradient remains rather tight over the region. A surface trough passes through the forecast area early Wednesday morning, helping to bring another round of gusty westerly winds, strongest over far northwest SD where some gusts of 50 to around 60 mph are likely, better than a 50 percent chance. At this point, will issue a high wind watch for Harding County and let dayshift have another look at wind potential across northwest into west central SD. High temps will be similar to today, mostly 70s on the Plains and 60s over the higher Black Hills. The rest of the week and the weekend look to be at least seasonably warm, with above average temperatures for at least Thursday and Friday, as ridge builds over the western US into the Rockies and large trough covers the eastern US. Looking for 70s to mid 80s for highs most days through Sunday, then cooling down some early next week. Ridge to the west should keep the area dry from Wednesday through at least most of Friday. The ridge will break down some as it moves into the Plains over the weekend, allowing for some shortwave energy to pass through the northern and central Plains and bring chances for showers and storms at times over the weekend and into early next week. At this time, any activity looks to be isolated to widely scattered over the weekend, with perhaps better chances toward Monday as a stronger shortwave tries to move through the northern Plains. && .AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Wednesday) Issued At 1111 AM MDT Tue Jun 4 2024 Scattered rain showers continue to push westward through the forecast area with rapidly clearing skies over NE WY and the Black Hills. The line of showers have pushed east of KRAP and will exit the forecast area after 19-21z. While transient MVFR conditions will be possible as the line of showers move east, VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Breezy NW winds expected this afternoon and again Wednesday mid-morning. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...High Wind Watch from Wednesday morning through Wednesday afternoon for SDZ001. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...26 AVIATION...SE