414
FXUS63 KUNR 030408
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1008 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe storms possible this afternoon and evening, mainly over
  south-central SD, with a few stronger storms further west into
  western SD and the Black Hills.

- Warm weather expected for much of the upcoming week, with drier
  conditions developing mid to late week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 1245 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

Water vapor shows upper trof over the Northern Rockies with next
upper trof beginning to move inland the Pac NW. At the surface,
trof extends through the western Dakotas southward into the NE
panhandle and eastern CO. Cold front just recently moved through
Rapid City. Early afternoon temps range from the upper 60s in
northeast WY to the lower 80s in south-central SD.

Still seeing mostly fair wx cumulus across the forecast area as
the atmosphere is taking some time to recover from the
overnight/early morning convection. MLCAPE is ranging from
1000-1500J/kg along/east of the surface trof/cold front and
upwards of 2500J/kg across south-central SD with modest shear in
place. Should start seeing some convection developing over the
Black Hills area in the next hour or two, with additional activity
from northeast WY through southwest and south-central SD. There
could be a few stronger storms in areas west of the surface
trof/cold front, but the better severe threat will be across
south-central SD where MLCAPE may approach 3500J/kg with
increasing deep layer shear as upper trof nudges eastward. The
best chance for the severe storms over south-central SD will be
in the late afternoon/evening hours with large hail and damaging
winds the main threats. Storms will gradually end by later this
evening.

Southwest flow aloft quickly returns on Monday with warm front
lifting north across the area. Areas on the SD plains should reach
well into the 80s with a couple locations south/east of the Black
Hills close to 90. Could be a few late day showers/storms, but
overall coverage should be limited and severe storms are not
expected.

Next upper trof crosses the NortheWarm today with chances for
showers and thunderstorms. rn Rockies into the Northern Plains
Monday night into Tuesday for a slightly better chance for
showers/storms with the best lift across northeast WY and
northwest SD. Severe storms are not expected. Highs Tuesday will
be mostly in the 70s.

Upper ridge then gets established across the western CONUS for mid
to late week, with drier and warm conditions expected for our
area. However, ridge axis looks to remain to our west with mainly
northwest flow across the Northern Plains. This should keep temps
from getting too hot. Upper ridge will slowly break down and shift
south for very late in the week and next weekend, with a more
unsettled pattern developing for our area.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1008 PM MDT Sun Jun 2 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson
AVIATION...Wong