067
FXUS63 KUNR 110430
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1030 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Severe weather is developing early this afternoon, with the
  primary hazards being locally heavy rainfall, large hail,
  damaging winds, and an isolated tornado threat.

- Near to above average temperatures with near daily chances for
  showers and storms through the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 1253 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

19Z upper level analysis has strong short wave entering the
Northern Plains at the moment. Severe thunderstorm watch 404 has
been issued, with strong to severe storms ongoing. At the surface,
strong southerly boundary layer winds are ongoing, with a strong
frontal boundary crossing Northeast Wyoming. Temperatures are in
the 70s.

Upper level wave will continue to cross the area today into
tonight, with strong to severe storms crossing western SD this
afternoon, and eventually exiting the forecast area early this
evening. Large hail and damaging wind gusts are likely with some
of these storms. Best chances of an isolated tornado will be
across northwestern SD through mid afternoon.

Broad upper level ridge then takes over for Tuesday into Thursday
with mostly dry conditions expected. Only isolated storms are
expected from Wednesday into Thursday. Closed upper low lifts
across the area on Friday with better chances for storms. Upper
ridge builds across the northern Plains into the weekend, with
scattered storms possible each day. Temperatures will remain at or
above average through the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1029 PM MDT Mon Jun 10 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...15
AVIATION...Dye