Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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111 FXUS63 KUNR 270150 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 750 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... -Showers and isolated thunderstorms through this evening -Warmer and drier this week with thunderstorms returning for the second half of the week && .UPDATE... Issued at 750 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Main band of showers and thunderstorms is starting to exit far eastern portions of the forecast area right now, with isolated to widely scattered showers/thundershowers now developing over northeast WY with a secondary disturbance passing over eastern MT/far northeast WY. Brief gusty winds have been noted with these showers. Expect this activity to expand into the Black Hills area through the evening, then dissipate after midnight across southwest SD. Have updated the forecast to adjust PoP chances and cloud cover based on latest CAMS and radar trends. Further adjustments could be needed through the evening. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday) Issued at 1257 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Upper trough will continue to move across the region this evening, supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. A few storms may contain gusty winds and hail. Ridging will then prevail for the first part of the week, with warmer conds and dry weather. However, the next upper trough will push into the Rockies by mid week as long trajectory southerly flow allows LL moisture return along the plains adjacent to the Rockies, supporting unsettled conds through the end of the week. Temps will be at or above seasonal norms for the first half of the week, cooling down toward the end of the week. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Monday Evening) Issued At 520 PM MDT Sun May 26 2024 Main area of showers and thunderstorms will move through and exit far eastern portions of the forecast area over the next 2 to 3 hours. Isolated showers are also still possible from northeast WY into the Black Hills area this evening as a weak disturbance passes over these areas. Brief MVFR conditions will accompany heavier showers over south central SD through early evening. Otherwise, VFR conditions can generally be expected through the forecast period. Breezy northwesterly winds will develop over much of the area on Monday, especially the western SD plains, where some gusts to over 30 kts can be expected. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ UPDATE...26 DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC AVIATION...26