Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 172315

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
515 PM MDT Thu May 17 2018

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 205 PM MDT Thu May 17 2018

An upper level trough covers the western CONUS, and a
weak wave is pushing through the northern plains. Showers and
thunderstorms have developed across parts of far western SD.
Surface trough is moving into the CWA, and winds ahead of the
trough are breezy across west central SD. Temperatures are rising
into the 80s, and dew points are in the 50s and lower 60s.

A potent shortwave associated with the upper trough will cross the
CWA this afternoon and evening, sparking thunderstorms across much
of the area. MLCAPE is already 1500-2000 J/kg over much of the area,
and 0-6 km shear is 30-40 kts across northwestern SD. Hi-res
convective models are showing thunderstorms expanding around the
SD/WY border early this afternoon, forming an MCS as the wave shifts
eastward. Inverted-V soundings support strong wind gusts, and large
hail will also be a possibility. PW values of 150-200% of normal
suggest heavy rain, and flooding may be a concern, especially for
areas that have recently received plentiful moisture. Storms will
shift into eastern SD after midnight.

Low-level trough will linger over the region Friday. Cooler air will
start to push into the CWA from the northwest with a cold front,
while southerly flow across southern and central SD will keep
temperatures warm, allowing instability to redevelop. Another round
of thunderstorms is expected along and southeast of the front.
Decent CAPE and shear will allow for a few marginally strong storms,
especially across southwestern to central SD.

Showers will persist across mainly the southeastern half of the CWA
Saturday, as the low very slowly transitions from eastern CO into KS
and eastern NE. As cold air wraps into the low, highs Saturday will
be only in the 50s, with lows Saturday night dipping into the 30s
and 40s.

The low finally starts moving out of the region Sunday, and a
warming trend will begin as ridging develops. Meanwhile, another
strong low pressure system will develop over the western states,
which will bring more storm activity to the region towards the
middle of next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued At 508 PM MDT Thu May 17 2018

Thunderstorms will continue across much of the area tonight,
gradually shifting eastward. Severe storms are expected, with
large hail and damaging wind gusts. Some MVFR ceilings will move
into the northwestern CWA Friday morning, and northwesterly winds
will become breezy. Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop
across much of the area in the afternoon. Some storms could be
strong to severe again.




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