Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD
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564 FXUS63 KUNR 311922 AFDUNR Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY National Weather Service Rapid City SD 122 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warmer over the weekend with daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. Some storms could be strong to severe, especially on Sunday over central SD. - Warm weather expected for much of next week with drier conditions mid to late week. && .DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Friday) Issued at 104 PM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Water vapor shows weak troughing across the Northern Tier beneath a nearly stationary low over northern SASK/Manitoba. At the surface, high is centered over southwest SD. Showers from the overnight/morning short wave are quickly shifting northeast out of our zones. Early afternoon temps remain cool with readings in the 50s to mid 60s (40s in the Black Hills) and mostly cloudy skies. Quasi-zonal flow will persist through the weekend into early next week, with periodic chances for showers/storms. Warm advection ensues on Saturday as weak trof axis shifts east, with highs into the 70s to near 80. CAPE will increase in our southern zones with next embedded short wave bringing another chance for storms. Some stronger storms are possible in southwest/south-central SD, but better convective parameters will remain to our south. A stronger wave moves in for Sunday, with associated cold front pushing through in the morning to early afternoon. The timing of the front may result in the better severe chance in our eastern 1/3rd of zones, but should the front slow down the severe threat could extend through all of western SD. Highs Sunday will reach well into the 80s at least across our eastern 1/3rd of zones east of the cold front. Monday looks to be somewhat drier with short wave ridging passing overhead, but next upper trof works in Monday night into Tuesday for another chance of storms. Upper ridge still looks to be on track for mid to late next week, resulting in a drier and warmer pattern. && .AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Saturday Morning) Issued At 516 AM MDT Fri May 31 2024 Scattered showers are expected this morning, with isolated showers possible this afternoon. A few thunderstorms will be possible over southwestern and south central South Dakota today. VFR conditions will prevail through the period. && .UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. WY...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson AVIATION...10