671
FNUS73 KUNR 140441
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Creek Fire...Wyoming State Forestry Division
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1041 PM MDT Thu Jun 13 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2300 MDT on June 13.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Thunderstorms are possible Friday afternoon
(especially after 2pm) and night. Friday afternoon minimum
relative humidities will drop to 20-25 percent as south winds
increase to 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Hot and dry weather is
expected Saturday. Looking ahead, a cold front will bring good
chances for showers and thunderstorms Sunday as well as cooler
temperatures.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-50 percent). Chance of showers
                    and thunderstorms in the afternoon,
                    especially after 2pm.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........20-25 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds increasing to 10-20 mph with gusts to
                    25 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................15 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5700 to 6200 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Chance of
                    showers and thunderstorms in the evening, then
                    slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........78 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10-15 mph shifting to the
                    southwest overnight. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
CWR.................20 percent.
LAL.................3 until 2400, then 2.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth.
Mixing height.......400 to 900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 15 to 20 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 91.
Min humidity........22 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 15 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......9800 to 10300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 15 mph increasing to around 25
                    mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Excellent.

$$
Forecaster...EH
Requested by...Jeremy Dedic
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416066.1/UNR
.DELDT 06/13/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jeremy.dedic@wyo.gov