170
FNUS73 KUNR 170017
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Creek Fire...Wyoming State Forestry Division
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
617 PM MDT Sun Jun 16 2024

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2300 MDT on June 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A cool and wet pattern is expected through at least
Tuesday as a strong upper level trof works slowly eastward
through the Northern Rockies and into the Northern Plains. Expect
on and off periods of showers/thunderstorms, with generally
easterly winds through Monday, then northwest winds by Tuesday.
Unsettled weather is likely to continue the rest of the week with
temperatures slowly warming.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers late in the evening, then chance
                    of rain showers and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 48.
Max humidity........65 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around 20
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms overnight.
CWR.................30 percent.
LAL.................1 until 2400, then 2.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......600 to 1100 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East 25 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (45-55 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers and slight chance of thunderstorms in
                    the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 70.
Min humidity........49 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 26
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
CWR.................20 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 3.
Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......2400 to 2900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Southeast around 35 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Good.

.MONDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain showers in
                    the evening. Chance of thunderstorms through
                    the night. Chance of rain showers overnight.
Min temperature.....Around 46.
Max humidity........96 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast winds around 15 mph shifting to the
                    northwest overnight. Gusts up to 22 mph. Gusty
                    and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
CWR.................70 percent.
LAL.................3.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......1100 to 1600 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest 25 to 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (45-55 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers in the morning, then chance of
                    rain showers in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....Around 61.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to
                    around 24 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
LAL.................1.
Haines Index........2 or very low potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.
Mixing height.......5200 to 5700 ft agl.
Transport winds.....West around 30 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.

$$
Forecaster...JJ
Requested by...Jeremy Dedic
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2416066.5/UNR
.DELDT 06/16/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jeremy.dedic@wyo.gov