144
FXUS65 KVEF 230205
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
705 PM PDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures will continue to run around 5 to 8 degrees
hotter than normal through at least the middle of next week.
Moisture will continue to gradually push into Mohave County this
afternoon before spreading into San Bernardino and Clark Counties
overnight. Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible
tomorrow afternoon for portions of our forecast area south and east
of the I-15 corridor. This moisture will begin its slow retreat back
east on Monday with afternoon showers and thunderstorms remaining
possible for portions of Mohave County through the middle of the
week.

&&

.UPDATE...Convection today was limited to Mohave County and
generally short-lived. The only exception to this was a storm that
continued to redevelop over the Peacock Mountains east of Kingman,
producing nearly 1" of rain at a guage in the area. The only
remaining convection in our CWA is a few showers in far
eastern/southeastern Mohave County, along the leading edge of an
outflow boundary propagating out of Yavapai County. Any additional
development along the boundary should remain pretty weak and
transient as we continue to lose surface heating. Additional
moisture advection tonight will set the stage for better
shower/storm coverage tomorrow, primarily along and southeast of I-
15, but may extend up into eastern Lincoln County as well. Main
concerns will be gusty outflow winds and lightning, but like today,
cannot rule out an isolated flash flood threat if cells train over
the same area. Monsoonal moisture remains in place through mid-week,
keeping precip chances around for the aforementioned areas until a
trough brings drier and slightly cooler air in. Temperatures remain
above normal through the forecast period.

.SHORT TERM...through Monday.

Mid-level moisture continues its slow crawl north as is evident by
the dewpoint temperatures in the upper 50s in southeastern Mohave
County. When you take this moisture and combine it with intense
daytime heating and hotter than normal temperatures, you get an
increased chance for isolated showers and thunderstorms in Mohave
County this afternoon. Even with this moisture increase the lower
levels of the atmosphere remain relatively dry, which will make it
difficult for precipitation to reach the ground. While this drier
air near the surface may make it difficult for rain to reach the
ground, it will provide a favorable environment for gusty outflow
winds with any convection that does develop.

This moisture will continue to push into the southern and eastern
portions of our forecast area during the overnight hours, which will
bring increased chances for isolated showers and thunderstorms for
areas south and east of the I-15 corridor tomorrow afternoon. The
past few runs of the HREF and the latest run of the HRRR have shown
an uptick in the potential for isolated convective activity in
eastern Lincoln County tomorrow afternoon. While this is a slight
change from previous iterations of the forecast, it is not entirely
surprising as we tend to see convective activity in this region
during the North American Monsoon if the moisture makes it that far
north. The primary threats with any storms that develop tomorrow
will be periods of moderate rain, lightning, and gusty outflow
winds. Since this is the first time some portions of our forecast
area will have seen precipitation in quite a while, roadways may
become slick as oil and dirt are lifted from the surface.

By Monday the moisture will have begun it`s slow retreat back to the
east with lingering precipitation chances for southern San
Bernardino County and eastern Mohave County during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through Friday.

An extended period of hot weather is the main story though much of
the week as an expansive area of high pressure sets up and holds
across the Desert Southwest as is typical for this time of year.
There are indications the high flattens a little Thu-Fri in response
to a trough swinging across the Intermountain Region. The latest
NBM indicates daily high temperatures across the Mojave Desert
zones will generally be in the 108-112 degree range which is
several degrees above normal...but not uncommon for late June. The
official forecast for Las Vegas holds at 108-109 for most days
except peaks at 110 on Wednesday. Overnight lows will be in the
mid to upper 80s. While this is hot, the latest HeatRisk grids
have backed off slightly on indicating areas of major HeatRisk
(level 3) for Tue-Wed and mainly keep moderate across most of the
region.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will transition this afternoon
from light easterly to southeasterly to southerly with gusts of 15
to 20 knots, becoming light south southwesterly around sunset.
Sunday is likely to be more difficult, as scattered thunderstorms
primarily south and east of the terminal could produce outflow
boundaries which disrupt the winds. In the absence of outflows, a
similar transition as today from easterly to southerly would be the
most probable outcome.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Southerly winds gusting 15 to 25 knots are expected
over much of the region this afternoon, weakening overnight. Sunday,
scattered thunderstorms are expected primarily along and southeast
of Interstate 15, likely producing outflows which will disrupt the
winds and possibly causing poor visibility in blowing dust. These
storms will also produce isolated ceilings below 8000 feet with
associated terrain obscuration. Farther northwest, expect similar
winds as today, southerly gusting 15 to 25 knots.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Woods
SHORT TERM...Stessman
LONG TERM...Adair
AVIATION...Morgan

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