272
FXUS65 KVEF 301800
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1100 AM PDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Heat will peak today with a gradual moderating of temperatures
  for the remainder of the week.

* Increasing moisture will bring a slight chance for afternoon
  showers and thunderstorms to Mohave County beginning Tuesday,
  with coverage expanding Wednesday and Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through the end of the week.

Heat will peak across the region today with afternoon highs
climbing 3-7 degrees above normal, with a gradual cooling trend
Tuesday onward. The remainder of the week will feature decreasing
heights and increasing mid-level moisture, resulting temperatures
returning to near or even slightly below normal. While continued
warming is anticipated today, heights will actually begin to
decrease from their values Sunday, and majority of the added
warming is thanks to enhanced surface mixing and continued low
level warming. However, tonight`s guidance has shaved off a
degree or two of expected heat from the forecast, which makes
sense given the expectations outlined above. As such, moderate
heat risk is expected across most of the desert terrain, though
major heat risk is quite limited. Subtle cooling will begin on
Tuesday with more pronounced surface cooling midweek.

Meanwhile, still anticipating a push of low grade monsoonal
moisture into the region as early as Tuesday afternoon across
Northwest Arizona. Low levels will remain quite dry initially,
which will pose some risk for dry lightning strikes and very
strong surface wind gusts with the activity that forms. Moisture
will deepen Wednesday as continued mid-level moisture advection
creeps westward and interacts with an incoming low pressure system
over SoCal. This will result in increased storm coverage across
the eastern Mojave Desert and far southern Nevada Wednesday into
Thursday. As the SoCal low lifts inland, drier southwesterly flow
will push in by Friday with dry conditions resuming and breezy
southwesterly winds.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Winds
will gradually veer around to the south and southwest through
this afternoon, with another round of elevated and gusty winds
expected this afternoon through early evening. While prevailing
winds will be south-southwesterly, some variability is possible
during peak heating with gusts to around 20KT, intermittently
higher. Gusts diminish after sunset, with a repeat expected on
Tuesday as gusty south-southwest winds develop late in the period.
VFR conditions will prevail, with intermittent midlevel clouds
throughout the forecast period. Temperatures today will exceed 100
degrees between 19Z-04Z, peaking at 106 degrees around 23Z-01Z.


For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Gusty southerly to
southwesterly winds will develop areawide this afternoon, with
gusts to 20-25KT common at area terminals. Slightly stronger gusts
are expected across the Owens Valley in the vicinity of KBIH,
with gusts expected to diminish after sunset. The exception will
be across the Western Mojave, where gusts to 25KT will continue
through late evening. Thereafter, winds generally settle into
typical diurnal patterns with speeds around 10KT or less, with
VFR conditions prevailing through the forecast period.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Phillipson

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