110
FXUS65 KVEF 180941
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
241 AM PDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds will linger down the Colorado River Valley
today, resulting in choppy waves on area lakes. Today will be the
coolest day of the forecast period with high temperatures around 3
to 7 degrees cooler than normal. Temperatures will recover during
the second half of the week, with normal temperatures returning
tomorrow. temperatures returning to normal by Wednesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Current infrared and water vapor satellite imagery show an
upper-level trough moving through the Western US. The "cold
front" associated with this trough can be seen sweeping through
southern California and northwestern Arizona, with gusty northerly
winds located behind this front. These gusty northerly winds will
linger down the Colorado River Valley today, resulting in choppy
waves up to 2 feet on area lakes. Outside of northerly winds, we
will also see temperatures topping out around 3 to 7 degrees
cooler than normal thanks to this trough and it`s associated
front. Troughing will remain the dominant synoptic feature across
the Western US for much of the week. However, we will see 500 mb
heights gradually rise as the trough weakens, which will allow for
temperatures to take off during the second half of the week with
temperatures returning to normal by Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through next Tuesday.

A building ridge of high pressure over northern Mexico will allow
for modest height rises and an increase in temperatures across the
Desert Southwest, despite a persistent longwave trough dominating
the synoptic pattern of the western CONUS. Temperatures will
continue to rise through the end of the week and through the
weekend, with temperatures maxing out at around 10 degrees above
seasonal averages by the end of the weekend. As such, expect desert
valleys to return to the `Major` HeatRisk category on Saturday and
Sunday.

Meanwhile, the National Hurricane Center continues to watch a
disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico "Potential Tropical Depression
One". This warm tropical moisture is expected to track westward
across Mexico before getting wrapped up into the monsoonal high
pressure (which remains situated over northern Mexico). As such,
moisture will funnel up central Arizona and as far west as the
Colorado River Valley, resulting in slight chances of precipitation
in Mohave County each afternoon Friday through Monday.

The low levels of the atmosphere remain very dry, so showers and
thunderstorms that form are likely to encounter substantial
evaporation before precipitation reaches the ground. The more likely
scenario will be dry lightning, which could increase chances of
wildfire starts in the area. Will continue to monitor this moisture
flux through the week and update the forecast accordingly.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Gusty northerly winds persist
through the early morning, gradually decreasing. Direction will be
generally out of the north, bumping to the northeast or northwest
at times. Winds should fall to less than 10 knots by late
morning. Afterwards, diurnal winds with speeds under 10 knots are
anticipated for the afternoon and evening. BKN high clouds move
into the area this evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Gusty northerly winds behind a frontal passage persist
in the Las Vegas Valley, Owens Valley, and Colorado River Valley
though the morning. Winds at KDAG will also be gusty but should
maintain a westerly direction. Overall winds across the area should
decrease later in the morning and transition to a diurnal pattern
with speeds of less than 10 knots by the afternoon. SCT-BKN high
clouds move into the area this evening.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Stessman
LONG TERM...Varian
AVIATION...Meltzer

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter