Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
266 FXUS65 KVEF 150849 AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 149 AM PDT Sat Jun 15 2024 .SYNOPSIS...An increasing southwest flow aloft will lead to a hot and breezy day across the region today. However, a shift in the weather pattern will bring a cooling trend to the area beginning Sunday and continuing through the middle of next week before temperatures are forecast to increase once again. Temperatures will be more seasonal early to mid week for the first time since late May. && .SHORT TERM...Saturday and Sunday. A low pressure system centered over Vancouver Island weakens as it spreads east into the PacNW and northern Great Basin. For our area, the increasing southwest flow will lead to good atmospheric mixing this afternoon resulting in gusty winds and mostly minor impacts from wind. The northern half of our area will see locally breezy conditions of 10-20 mph this afternoon with windy conditions of 20-30 mph across our southern deserts. Locally stronger winds are possible in the western Mojave Desert generally west of Baker CA. Winds are forecast to decrease tonight but we could see elevated, gusty winds continue in the higher terrain and in the western parts of San Bernardino County. The low re-develops over the the PacNW on Sunday with shortwave energy passing across northern California and northern Nevada Sunday night. Gusty southerly winds develop across our southern deserts once again with stronger winds of 30-35 mph developing in parts of Mohave County during the afternoon hours. Later in the afternoon and overnight, west-southwest winds increase over the western portion of San Bernardino County while winds decrease by midnight in Mohave County. Mostly clear skies are expected over the weekend although we could see occasional high clouds at times. Today will be the hottest day of the weekend with high temperatures expected to be 6-10 degrees above normal then about 5 degrees cooler on Sunday. The areal coverage for major Heat Risk has shrunk for the 3rd consecutive day leaving leaving most of the area under minor-moderate Heat Risk. .LONG TERM...Monday through Friday. Still expecting the passage of a weak, dry cold front Monday night which will bring high temperatures back down closer to normal Monday- Wednesday. Surface winds will remain elevated on Monday then return to a more typical daytime south-southwest direction with speeds 10- 20 mph the rest of the week. Temperatures quickly start too warm on Thursday and Friday as broad, weak trough across the west starts to weaken its grip on the region. HeatRisk will mostly be in the `Moderate" category, with patchy `Major` values for a few of the lower desert valleys heading into next weekend. && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southerly winds will be favored through the overnight period with very sporadic gusts to 15 knots. Winds will become light post daybreak and may favor north or northeast directions through early afternoon before southwesterly winds resume between 20-21z with gusts of 20-25 knots. Breezy south winds will persist into the overnight period under mostly clear skies. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Breezy south or southwest winds are expected across most of the Mojave Desert and Las Vegas Valley TAF sites through the period, particularly in the afternoon and evening Saturday. Strongest winds will be focused near KDAG where gusts to 30 knots are possible. Across the Sierra more northerly winds are favored with afternoon and evening gusts to near 20 knots. Skies will be mostly clear across the region. && .FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon relative humidity values are expected to be under 15 percent over the weekend with poor overnight RH recovery. We will see gusty southwest winds develop both Saturday and Sunday afternoons with sustained winds between 10 and 20 mph with gusts 20 to 35 mph. The combination of low RH and gusty winds will elevate fire spread concerns, at least locally on Sunday in Mohave County and the Colorado River Valley where a Red Flag Warning is in effect. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM/FIRE WEATHER...Salmen LONG TERM...Pierce AVIATION...Outler For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter