433
FXUS65 KVEF 171632 RRA
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
932 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Conditions dry out today with temperatures over 10
degrees cooler than yesterday. Another low pressure system drops
into the region mid-to-late week, which will reinforce below-average
temperatures and return precipitation chances to the southern Great
Basin. Conditions dry out once again through the weekend as
temperatures rebound back to above-average.
&&

.UPDATE...Satellite imagery this morning showed a trough spinning in
northeast Nevada. Withe the trough axis through much of the region,
it was dry with clear skies in most locations. A pocket of moisture
situated over central Nevada combined with very cold temperatures
aloft was enough for widespread clouds and a few showers to develop
in the Great Basin Region, which brushed into Esmeralda County. The
biggest change since yesterday is temperatures. Compared to this
time yesterday, temperatures are about 10-15 degrees cooler, so a
noticable change in the temperatures for sure!

In general, expecting quiet weather through the afternoon. A few
showers may skirt northern Esmeralda and northern Lincoln counties
through the afternoon as  the upper level system slowly lifts
northeast away from the area, however with a lack of forcing these
showers will be weak and no impacts are expected. Winds will be much
lighter than yesterday with gusts likely (80& chance or greater)
remaining under 20 MPH across the region. With cool temperatures, it
will be a pleasant fall-like day today. No changes were made to the
afternoon forecast.

-Nickerson-
&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...251 AM PDT Tue Sep 17 2024
.SHORT TERM...Today through Wednesday.

The weather system that brought gusty winds to the region and
isolated showers and thunderstorms to the southwestern Great Basin
yesterday will push northeastward out of our forecast area today. In
its wake include light winds and a temperature drop of over 10
degrees. Clear skies and dry conditions expected today for most,
though remnant moisture will result in partly cloudy skies and
slight chances of an isolated light shower in the far northern
fringes of our forecast area (northern Esmeralda, central Nye, and
northern Lincoln counties).

Temperatures rebound somewhat on Wednesday, but remain below-
average, due to brief height increases ahead of the approach of a
secondary cool weather system. This closed low will slide along the
California coast before pushing into the Desert Southwest late
Wednesday night. Southerly winds will modestly increase with gust
speeds between 15 and 25 mph as pressure gradients increase over the
region. Late-Wednesday, slight precipitation chances return to
Esmeralda County and will continue to spread east and south with the
approach of the aforementioned low.

.LONG TERM...Thursday through Monday.

Not much change to previous thinking. Models remain in good
agreement showing unseasonably deep low pressure centered near
Point Conception Thursday. On its front side, moisture and lift
should combine to bring chances for showers and maybe a few
thunderstorms to areas northwest of I-15, with the best chances
from the Sierra Nevada range into Esmeralda County. Model
consensus for Friday shows the low slowly drifting east across the
Mojave Desert, with most of the uncertainty centered around how
slowly it moves. As it traverses our area, instability associated
with the cold temps aloft should fuel scattered showers and
thunderstorms. Saturday looks like the day with the most
uncertainty, as most model perturbations show the low center off
to our east, but a sizable minority depict a slower movement and
leave it lingering over our area for one more day. If the faster
movement pans out, Saturday would be dry with several degrees of
warming; if the slower solutions verify better, we would expect
less warming and one more day of showery weather. As high pressure
builds in from the west, Sunday and Monday should be dry and
warm, with temperatures close to normal for mid September.
&&


.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Breezy southwest winds with occasional
gusts of 15 to 20 knots will relax approaching sunrise and trend
light and variable. Confidence in wind direction is low, but a
general trend of light southeast winds through 20z before shifting
more northerly in the afternoon. Light southwesterly drainage
winds will resume overnight. Skies will be mostly clear through
the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Generally light winds are expected for the regional TAF
sites today, with wind patterns following typical diurnal trends.
Exception will be near KDAG where breezy west winds will persist
through the morning with gusts to 20 knots before easing by the
afternoon... only to return after sunset with occasional gusts to
20 knots.
&&


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Soulat
LONG TERM...Morgan
AVIATION...Outler

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