147
FXUS65 KVEF 020253
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
753 PM PDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Broad area of low pressure across the region will aid in
the development of gusty south to southwest winds today and Sunday.
By the middle of next week, expect well above-average temperatures
as high pressure builds over the region.

&&

.UPDATE...Latest satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across
the area. The few clouds across our northern areas can be attributed
to the broad trough that increased the southwest winds today. Most
locations gusted between 25-35 mph, but a few sites got up to 45 mph
at times. Fortunately, we haven`t heard of any fire starts today,
despite the elevated fire weather conditions. Breezes begin to
subside tomorrow and focus shift to the excessive heat coming
mid/late week. Excessive Heat Watches remain posted for most of the
Mojave Desert Wednesday and Thursday. The temperature forecast
becomes a bit more uncertain Friday-Sunday as moisture tries to work
its way in. However, temperatures are likely to remain above normal
for the foreseeable future.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through next Saturday.

A tightening pressure gradient associated with a trough of low
pressure approaching the Pacific Northwest will keep breezy
conditions around the area through Sunday. There is a stronger
shortwave trough that reaches western Washington state early Monday
morning. Associated with this feature is an extraordinarily
strong atmospheric river for this time of year which will bring
heavy rain to western Oregon and Washington. For our area, all
that moisture will only translate to an extensive area of cloud
cover sagging south over the area Monday afternoon and Monday
night. The cloud cover. Clouds decrease again as high pressure
begins to build in across the region on Tuesday. While
temperatures will remain consistently 5-8 degrees above normal
through Tuesday, the heat gets turned up for the latter half of
the week. An Excessive Heat Watch has been issued for much of the
lower elevations of the CWA as high temps 10-15 degrees above
normal are probable with near-record highs in some areas. As of
now, there is a 36% chance of reaching 110 degrees on Thursday,
which would tie the record for that date and the record for the
earliest 110 at Las Vegas. Beyond Thursday, a low pressure system
off the Baja California coast will begin to affect our weather.
The primary impact will be somewhat cooler temperatures heading
into the weekend. While a little cooler, temperatures will remain
above normal for early June.


&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southerly winds with gusts 20 to 25
knots are expected through sunset, with gusts ending thereafter.
Light winds Sunday morning should go southerly around 10 knots in
the afternoon. There will be a risk of easterly components in the
morning and early afternoon, which if they occur, should remain less
than 10 knots. Winds Monday should be similar to Sunday. No
operationally significant clouds or weather expected through Monday,
although high clouds are expected to blanket the area late Monday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...South to southwest winds gusting around 25 knots are
expected this afternoon, with stronger gusts possible in favored
terrain. Slightly weaker winds are expected Sunday, with gusts of 15
to 25 knots, mainly in the afternoon. Monday, winds will increase a
little in the southern Great Basin, the Sierra Nevada, and the far
western Mojave Desert, and remain similar to Sunday in the rest of
the Mojave Desert. No operationally significant clouds or weather
expected through Monday, although high clouds are expected to
blanket the area from north to south on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Afternoon minimum relative humidities will be in the
single- digits to low-teens each afternoon this weekend. There will
be slightly increased moisture across the southern Great Basin and
southeastern California Monday and Tuesday. However, afternoon RH
values will remain below 15%. Even drier conditions will settle in
by mid-week. Breezy afternoon wind between 10 and 20 mph is expected
daily through the week. While fuels are curing and RH values
critical, winds, while breezy, will not reach critical criteria.


&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Woods
DISCUSSION...Berc
AVIATION...Morgan

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