143
FXUS65 KVEF 062046
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
145 PM PDT Thu Jun 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will hold over the region through
Friday, then will gradually break down this weekend as a trough
approaches the West Coast. High temperatures as much as 10 to 15
degrees above normal can be expected, with record high temperatures
likely for some sites through Friday. Temperatures will slowly
retreat over the weekend, but will remain above normal into early
next week.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Saturday night.

Temperatures were running 4-5 degrees higher early this afternoon
than they were 24 hours ago at Harry Reid Airport which puts the
high on track to easily reach 111-112 degrees this afternoon and
break the record of 110 degrees for June 6th. Water vapor imagery
clearly showed the ridge axis centered over Utah/Arizona and
increasing southerly flow aloft over California/Nevada ahead of a
weak trough approaching the California Coast. The large closed low
west of Baja California was also well defined and our forecast area
will be influenced by these features through Saturday...leading to a
gradual downward temperature trend along with increasing afternoon
south-southwest breezes with sustained speeds 10-15 mph.
Temperatures will peak today then lower 1-3 degrees each day Friday
and Saturday as the aforementioned trough moves inland. The Baja
closed low will slowly be nudged up toward Sonora and bring some
high clouds across western Arizona and southern Nevada. No changes
were made to the Excessive Heat Warning/Heat Advisory across the
forecast area which ends Saturday evening for the Las Vegas Valley,
Death Valley, western Clark, southern Nye, and northeast Clark
counties.

The secondary weather concern is the potential for isolated afternoon
and evening thunderstorms over the southern Sierra/White Mountains
and higher terrain of central Nevada through Friday. The main hazard
aside from lightning will be the potential for strong convective
wind gusts. The HREF indicates a 30-50 percent chance of gusts over
35 mph for these areas...especially Friday afternoon.

.LONG TERM...Sunday through next Thursday.

Temperatures will decrease an additional 3-5 degrees Sunday from the
influence of the trough digging over California and the former Baja
low lifting across Arizona. This setup will also produce afternoon
south-southwest winds sustained 10-20 mph. The digging trough is
forecast to spin up into a cutoff low hugging the Southern
California Coast by Monday then there is good agreement among model
ensembles that it will circulate west of San Diego through Tuesday
before moving slowly inland Wednesday and Thursday as it is picked
up by a mean trough deepening over the Pacific Northwest and Great
Basin. There is not much indication that the cutoff low will pull in
moisture across our forecast area, but we will have to watch it
since there are often surprises with these systems.the medium range
model ensembles now indicate broad trough developing over the
western states the second half of the week, so tempers will likely
trend downward closer to normal.
&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...east to northeast winds 10 knots or
less will persist through around 22-23z, becoming variable at times.
Winds will shift to the southwest rather quickly by 00z-01z with a
few gusts up to 15 knots. Winds will remain somewhat elevated
through around 04-06z before decreasing and becoming less gusty.
However, the south to southwest wind direction will continue through
13-15z Friday. Otherwise a few mid and high level clouds can be
expected at times.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Terminals across the Las Vegas Valley will generally
follow diurnal trends with little to influence wind direction and
speed aside from terrain. Winds may gust 10-15 knots late afternoon
and early evening before settling below 10 knots tonight. Elsewhere,
at KBIH, winds look to remain south to southeasterly through the day
with a few gusts of 15-20 knots during the afternoon and evening.
Winds will then shift back to the northwest late tonight into early
Friday. Terminals along the Colorado River Valley, KEED and KIFP,
look to maintain south to southwest winds through the period with a
few gusts to 15 knots this afternoon. Otherwise winds will remain 10
knots or less. Generally dry conditions and a few mid level clouds
can be expected with high level clouds gradually moving in at most
terminals this evening and overnight.

&&

.CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures and record high minimum
temperatures are in jeopardy of being tied or broken this week.
The tables below shows the daily record high temperature and record
high minimum temperature for June 6 through June 8.

RECORD HIGH     THU, JUNE 6     FRI, JUNE 7     SAT, JUNE 8
                Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas       110(2010)       109(2013)       112(2013)
Bishop          102(2010)       103(2013)       105(2016)
Needles         114(2013)       117(2013)       118(1955)
Barstow-Daggett 110(1981)       112(1985)       113(2013)
Kingman         103(2013)       106(2013)       107(1955)
Death Valley    121(1996)       123(1995)       123(2013)

RECORD WARM     THU, JUNE 6     FRI, JUNE 7     SAT, JUNE 8
LOW             Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas       83(2019)        86(2010)        84(2016)
Bishop          64(2016)        61(2016)        64(2014)
Needles         87(2006)        95(2016)        85(2013)
Barstow-Daggett 82(1981)        81(2002)        77(2016)
Kingman         74(1981)        74(1928)        74(1927)
Death Valley    95(2019)        93(2006)        94(2022)

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/LONG TERM...Adair
AVIATION...Austin

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