906
FXUS65 KVEF 042031
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
130 PM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the region through
Friday then then will gradually break down this weekend as a trough
approaches the West Coast. High temperatures as much as 10 to 15
degrees above normal can be expected with record high temperatures
likely for some sites Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will slowly
retreat over the weekend into early next week but stay above normal.
&&

.SHORT TERM...through Friday.

The main story is the building heat wave Wednesday through Friday as
a broad ridge nosing inland from the Eastern Pacific expands and
amplifies over the western states. The ridge axis will be centered
directly over Nevada Wednesday then will shift slightly east and
become positioned more over Utah and the northern Intermountain
Region Thursday and Friday which will favor enhanced boundary layer
mixing with sustained afternoon south-southwest winds of 10-15
mph...aiding temperatures to reach their full potential. A few
clouds will develop over the high mountains, but most of the
forecast area will experience maximum surface heating from full
sunshine each day. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect
Wednesday through Friday for our Mojave Desert zones and the Owens
Valley. A Heat Advisory remains in effect Wednesday through Friday
for the southern Great Basin and southern Nevada mountains.

The latest NBM indicates a 50% probability of reaching 110 degrees
Wednesday at Harry Reid Airport in Las Vegas, but the official
forecast high remains at 108 degrees. A new record high looks almost
certain for Las Vegas on Thursday with an 80% chance of reaching 112
degrees. This would tie the earliest date for reaching 110 degrees
which previously occurred June 6, 2010. The record high for Death
Valley on June 6th is 121...which is also the forecast high so it
won`t be too much of stretch to reach 122. The first 120 of the
season is normally June 15th, so it would be an earlier-than-normal
occurrence. If Bishop hits 105 degrees, it would be the earliest
occurrence, the current record occurrence is June 8, 2016. See the
climate section below for additional details on records.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday.

Uncertainty persists regarding Saturday`s forecast. There is good
agreement that a weak closed low will push into Baja California and
that a weak Pacific trough will move through the western CONUS.
Disagreement continues regarding the strength and positioning of
these entities as they push through the region. The strength and
positioning will determine temperatures on Saturday by way of the
amount of moisture transport as well as the degree of height falls
in the Desert Southwest. A weaker and slower solution pertaining to
both the trough and the low would result in persistent hot
temperatures and would increase the likelihood of extending
excessive heat products into Saturday. At present, the chance of
108F on Saturday in Las Vegas is 67%, which would indicate a
persistent Major-to-Extreme HeatRisk in desert valleys across the
forecast area. Will continue to monitor excessive heat potential
going into the weekend as the week progresses and as we gain more
information regarding the synoptic outlook.

There is good agreement among the majority of model ensembles that
temperatures will decrease by several degrees Sunday and Monday as
the eastern Pacific trough moves inland. That said, temperatures
will likely remain 5-8 degrees above seasonal normals with
`Moderate` HeatRisk in desert valleys. Through the weekend, continue
to take frequent breaks in the air conditioning and/or shade if
recreating or working outdoors.

&&

.CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures, and record high minimum
temperatures are in jeopardy of being tied or broken this week.
The tables below shows the daily record high temperature
and record high minimum temperature for Wednesday, June 5 through
Friday, June 7.

RECORD HIGH     WED, JUNE 5     THU, JUNE 6     FRI, JUNE 7
                Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas        109(2016)      110(2010)       109(2013)
Bishop           101(2021)      102(2010)       103(2013)
Needles          117(2016)      114(2013)       117(2013)
Barstow-Daggett  110(1996)      110(1981)       112(1985)
Kingman          105(2016)      103(2013)       106(2013)
Death Valley     122(1996)      121(1996)       123(1995)

RECORD HIGH     WED, JUNE 5     THU, JUNE 6     FRI, JUNE 7
LOW             Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)      Record(Yr)

Las Vegas        84(2021)       83(2019)        86(2010)
Bishop           63(2003)       64(2016)        61(2016)
Needles          87(1957)       87(2006)        95(2016)
Barstow-Daggett  80(1977)       82(1981)        81(2002)
Kingman          75(1903)       74(1981)        74(1928)
Death Valley     94(2021)       95(2019)        93(2006)

&&

.AVIATION...Wind speeds this afternoon will drop to 8KT or less.
Light and diurnal wind trends will return for the rest of the TAF
period. Typical south to southwest winds will set up tonight before
becoming light and variable Wednesday morning then transitioning to
the east Tuesday afternoon. Wind speeds tonight and Wednesday will
remain under 8KT. A few lingering high clouds this afternoon will
move east this afternoon with clear skies expected tonight and
Wednesday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California... Elevated north to northeast winds will continue until
around mid-day then taper off. Winds will then favor a typical
diurnal wind pattern with generally light wind speeds expected the
rest of the TAF period. The only TAF site that could see winds up to
10KT would be KDAG tonight as the west winds push in after 03Z. High
cirrus clouds will move east and clear skies are expected much of
the afternoon through Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adair
LONG TERM...Varian
AVIATION...Nickerson

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