Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
296 FXUS65 KVEF 050934 AAA AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 235 PM PDT Wed Jun 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the region through Friday then will gradually break down this weekend as a trough approaches the West Coast. High temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal can be expected with record high temperatures likely for some sites Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will slowly retreat over the weekend into early next week, but stay above normal. && .SHORT TERM...through Friday. Massive dome of high pressure in place across the Intermountain West will translate to well above normal temperatures today-Friday. Record highs, as well as record warm lows set to be broke or tied during this heat wave. Please take this heat wave serious as many have not had the time to acclimate to temperatures this hot, this early. No change to existing heat products with an Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 10 am this morning through 9 pm Friday for our Mojave Desert zones and the Owens Valley. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the southern Great Basin and southern Nevada mountains over the same time period. Only other item is a 10%-20% chance of showers or thunderstorms along the southern Sierra of Inyo and Mono Counties each afternoon and evening. One or two of these storms may come out of Mono/Mineral Counties and reach northwestern Esmeralda in the early evening. Gusty winds would be the main impact for any storm. The latest NBM indicates a 38% probability of reaching 110 degrees today at Harry Reid Airport in Las Vegas, but the official forecast high remains at 108 degrees. A new record high looks almost certain for Las Vegas on Thursday with a 90% chance of reaching 112 degrees. This would tie the earliest date for reaching 110 degrees which previously occurred June 6, 2010. The record high for Death Valley on June 6th is 121...which is also the forecast high so it won`t be too much of stretch to reach 122. The first 120 of the season is normally June 15th, so it would be an earlier-than-normal occurrence. If Bishop hits 105 degrees, it would be the earliest occurrence, the current record occurrence is June 8, 2016. See the climate section below for additional details on records. .LONG TERM...Saturday through next Wednesday. Over the weekend and into early next week, temperatures are forecast to gradually cool as a cutoff low off the Baja Coast begins to move inland. By Sunday/Monday, the combination of falling 500mb heights and increased cloud cover should bring highs down 5-10 degrees from their peak on Thursday, but temperatures will still be several degrees above normal. There may be just enough moisture with the low to spur weak convection on the high terrain. Best odds (still only 15% or less) appear to be on the fringes of our CWA, namely the Sierra, our far northern zones, and eastern Mohave County. Otherwise, the forecast area remains largely dry. By the middle of next week, the ensemble guidance has the low dissipating and another ridge developing over the Western US. Uncertainty remains on the strength and position of this ridge, as well as potential for another cutoff low off the SoCal Coast. Warming temperatures are likely during this time, but just how warm we get will depend on the aforementioned uncertainties. Probabilities for 110 in Las Vegas increase to 40% by Wednesday, but the 25th to 75th percentiles range from 105 to 112. Either way you look at it, above-normal temperatures are likely (60-80%) to continue through at least the 2nd week of June. && .CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures, and record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy of being tied or broken this week. The tables below shows the daily record high temperature and record high minimum temperature for Wednesday, June 5 through Friday, June 7. RECORD HIGH WED, JUNE 5 THU, JUNE 6 FRI, JUNE 7 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 109(2016) 110(2010) 109(2013) Bishop 101(2021) 102(2010) 103(2013) Needles 117(2016) 114(2013) 117(2013) Barstow-Daggett 110(1996) 110(1981) 112(1985) Kingman 105(2016) 103(2013) 106(2013) Death Valley 122(1996) 121(1996) 123(1995) RECORD HIGH WED, JUNE 5 THU, JUNE 6 FRI, JUNE 7 LOW Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 84(2021) 83(2019) 86(2010) Bishop 63(2003) 64(2016) 61(2016) Needles 87(1957) 87(2006) 95(2016) Barstow-Daggett 80(1977) 82(1981) 81(2002) Kingman 75(1903) 74(1981) 74(1928) Death Valley 94(2021) 95(2019) 93(2006) && .AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Winds will remain light, less than 10 knots, and will follow typical diurnal directional trends with period of light and variable winds as they transition. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California...Winds will remain relatively light, 10 knots or less, and will tend to follow typical diurnal directional trends. Winds may become light and variable at times, especially as they transition directions. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Pierce LONG TERM...Woods AVIATION...Stessman For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter