Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
Issued by NWS Las Vegas, NV
902 FXUS65 KVEF 042102 CCA AFDVEF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Las Vegas NV 130 PM PDT Tue Jun 4 2024 .SYNOPSIS...High pressure will build over the region through Friday then will gradually break down this weekend as a trough approaches the West Coast. High temperatures as much as 10 to 15 degrees above normal can be expected with record high temperatures likely for some sites Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will slowly retreat over the weekend into early next week, but stay above normal. && .SHORT TERM...through Friday. The main story is the building heat wave Wednesday through Friday as a broad ridge nosing inland from the Eastern Pacific expands and amplifies over the western states. The ridge axis will be centered directly over Nevada Wednesday then will shift slightly east and become positioned more over Utah and the northern Intermountain Region Thursday and Friday which will favor enhanced boundary layer mixing with sustained afternoon south-southwest winds of 10-15 mph...aiding temperatures to reach their full potential. A few clouds will develop over the high mountains, but most of the forecast area will experience maximum surface heating from full sunshine each day. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect Wednesday through Friday for our Mojave Desert zones and the Owens Valley. A Heat Advisory remains in effect Wednesday through Friday for the southern Great Basin and southern Nevada mountains. The latest NBM indicates a 50% probability of reaching 110 degrees Wednesday at Harry Reid Airport in Las Vegas, but the official forecast high remains at 108 degrees. A new record high looks almost certain for Las Vegas on Thursday with an 80% chance of reaching 112 degrees. This would tie the earliest date for reaching 110 degrees which previously occurred June 6, 2010. The record high for Death Valley on June 6th is 121...which is also the forecast high so it won`t be too much of stretch to reach 122. The first 120 of the season is normally June 15th, so it would be an earlier-than-normal occurrence. If Bishop hits 105 degrees, it would be the earliest occurrence, the current record occurrence is June 8, 2016. See the climate section below for additional details on records. .LONG TERM...Saturday through Tuesday. Uncertainty persists regarding Saturday`s forecast. There is good agreement that a weak closed low will push into Baja California and that a weak Pacific trough will move through the western CONUS. Disagreement continues regarding the strength and positioning of these entities as they push through the region. The strength and positioning will determine temperatures on Saturday by way of the amount of moisture transport as well as the degree of height falls in the Desert Southwest. A weaker and slower solution pertaining to both the trough and the low would result in persistent hot temperatures and would increase the likelihood of extending excessive heat products into Saturday. At present, the chance of 108F on Saturday in Las Vegas is 67%, which would indicate a persistent Major-to-Extreme HeatRisk in desert valleys across the forecast area. Will continue to monitor excessive heat potential going into the weekend as the week progresses and as we gain more information regarding the synoptic outlook. There is good agreement among the majority of model ensembles that temperatures will decrease by several degrees Sunday and Monday as the eastern Pacific trough moves inland. That said, temperatures will likely remain 5-8 degrees above seasonal normals with `Moderate` HeatRisk in desert valleys. Through the weekend, continue to take frequent breaks in the air conditioning and/or shade if recreating or working outdoors. && .CLIMATE...Several record high temperatures, and record high minimum temperatures are in jeopardy of being tied or broken this week. The tables below shows the daily record high temperature and record high minimum temperature for Wednesday, June 5 through Friday, June 7. RECORD HIGH WED, JUNE 5 THU, JUNE 6 FRI, JUNE 7 Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 109(2016) 110(2010) 109(2013) Bishop 101(2021) 102(2010) 103(2013) Needles 117(2016) 114(2013) 117(2013) Barstow-Daggett 110(1996) 110(1981) 112(1985) Kingman 105(2016) 103(2013) 106(2013) Death Valley 122(1996) 121(1996) 123(1995) RECORD HIGH WED, JUNE 5 THU, JUNE 6 FRI, JUNE 7 LOW Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Record(Yr) Las Vegas 84(2021) 83(2019) 86(2010) Bishop 63(2003) 64(2016) 61(2016) Needles 87(1957) 87(2006) 95(2016) Barstow-Daggett 80(1977) 82(1981) 81(2002) Kingman 75(1903) 74(1981) 74(1928) Death Valley 94(2021) 95(2019) 93(2006) && .AVIATION...Wind speeds this afternoon will drop to 8KT or less. Light and diurnal wind trends will return for the rest of the TAF period. Typical south to southwest winds will set up tonight before becoming light and variable Wednesday morning then transitioning to the east Tuesday afternoon. Wind speeds tonight and Wednesday will remain under 8KT. A few lingering high clouds this afternoon will move east this afternoon with clear skies expected tonight and Wednesday. For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast California... Elevated north to northeast winds will continue until around mid-day then taper off. Winds will then favor a typical diurnal wind pattern with generally light wind speeds expected the rest of the TAF period. The only TAF site that could see winds up to 10KT would be KDAG tonight as the west winds push in after 03Z. High cirrus clouds will move east and clear skies are expected much of the afternoon through Wednesday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating procedures. && $$ SHORT TERM...Adair LONG TERM...Varian AVIATION...Nickerson For more forecast information...see us on our webpage: https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter