412
FXUS65 KVEF 241932
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1232 PM PDT Fri May 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds persist through the night, then decrease on
Saturday morning. The southern Great Basin and Sierra could see a
few showers and thunderstorms this evening. High pressure builds in
over the area on Memorial Day and through next week bringing warmer,
above normal temperatures to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Monday.

The shortwave responsible for today`s winds will move east along the
base of an upper level trough tonight, exiting the area by tomorrow
morning. The result will be an overall decrease in surface winds on
Saturday morning across the area. This includes winds along the
Colorado River, where a Lake Wind Advisory will be in effect until
midnight tonight. However, continued extra caution on the lakes is
advised as waves of 1 to 2 feet remain possible on Saturday. The
strongest winds in the forecast area will be in western San
Bernardino County. These winds persist into Saturday morning because
of a low level jet with speeds up to 40 knots at 850 mb in place
over southeast California. Surface gusts of 30 to 35 mph out of the
southwest are possible in the Wind Advisory area on Saturday morning
even through wind gusts elsewhere stay closer to the 15 to 25 mph
range. Therefore, the Wind Advisory continues into Saturday
morning for western San Bernardino County. Shower activity in the
southern Great Basin should taper off tonight as moisture and
instability exit the area with the shortwave.

High pressure moves into the western United States on Sunday and
the ridge axis should be in place over the Four Corners by
Monday. The weather for the remainder of Memorial Day Weekend
features light winds with usual afternoon breezes, dry conditions,
and near average temperatures. This means highs in the upper 90s
to low 100s in Las Vegas and the Colorado River Valley on Memorial
Day itself.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday through next Friday.

An upper level trough starts to move into the Pacific Northwest on
Tuesday. There is currently discrepancy between models in whether
the trough will push the ridge out of the area and move south into
the Great Basin by Friday, or stay to the north and merely flatten
the ridge. Currently, about 20 percent of ensemble members support
the trough moving south, while the remaining members keep the trough
to the north. If the more likely scenario occurs and the trough
stays north, above average highs, light winds, and dry conditions
can be expected. Even if 500 mb heights decrease, southerly warm air
advection at the surface should help keep temperatures elevated.
However, if the trough digs south in the less likely scenario, gusty
winds and cooler temperatures could arrive in the forecast area
later next week. Will continue to monitor model trends through next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southwest winds with gusts to 30kts
will develop by 20Z and persist into the early evening. Winds
will decrease slightly after sunset, but occasional gusts to 15kts
are expected through most of the overnight period. Light winds of
less than 10kts are likely tomorrow morning, but southwest winds
with gusts to 20kts are expected to develop by 20Z. VFR conditions
will prevail through the TAF period, with only FEW-SCT clouds AOA
15kft AGL expected into this evening.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Las Vegas area TAF sites will see conditions similar to
KLAS through the period.  A few showers over the northern Sierra
should result in westerly winds with occasional gusts to 20kts
developing at KBIH this afternoon.  After sunset, more typical
northerly winds are expected.  KDAG will see winds gusting to 30kts
into this evening.  Conditions should improve slightly overnight,
but gusts to 25kts will continue into Saturday afternoon.  Southerly
winds with afternoon gusts of 20-30kts are expected at the Colorado
River Sites today and Saturday.  VFR conditions will prevail with
only FEW-SCT clouds AOA 15kft AGL expected, mainly over the northern
half of the region.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Meltzer
AVIATION...Planz

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter