880
FXUS65 KVEF 021740
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1040 AM PDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected today as a low
  pressure system moves through. Sudden strong wind gusts will
  again be a concern.

* Drier conditions resume by Friday with a warming trend heading
  into next week.

* Breezy conditions and low humidity will lead to elevated fire
  danger for the 4th of July.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through the middle of next week.

Another active day is in store today as a low pressure system
moves through and interacts with a pool of mid-level moisture
across the region. Moisture depth has increased a bit compared to
Tuesday and surface dewpoints have risen notably as well, which
should work to encourage wetter storms. However, strong wind gusts
will remain a possibility with the stronger storm cores especially
in the afternoon and evening thanks to a deeply mixed lower
atmosphere. HREF once again suggest about a 10% chance of wind
gusts exceeding 58 mph across much of southern Nevada and
Northwest Arizona with 70-90% probabilities for wind gusts over
40 mph. The incoming low is also responsible for ongoing weak
convection extending from the southern Great Basin into the
eastern Mojave Desert early this morning, mainly west of Las
Vegas. This activity will continue into the morning hours and
slowly develop eastward, so a few rumbles and gusty winds will be
possible in the morning hours within the Las Vegas Valley before
more robust redevelopment occurs later in the day.

As the low moves eastward and weakens today into Thursday, drier
air will gradually work east. This will result in precipitation
chances tapering from west to east Wednesday night into Thursday,
though some lingering activity will persist into Thursday
afternoon across Mohave County and perhaps Lincoln and Clark
Counties. Drier air will sweep through area wide by Friday with
temperatures hovering near to slightly below normal over the
weekend before a warming trend begins next week.

Thunderstorm activity will trend wetter today which should limit
the coverage of Dry lightning, though western areas of the Great
Basin and parts of the Mojave Desert may still see relatively
little rainfall with the storms. Nonetheless, surface dewpoints
will keep minimum RH values elevated and help to improve the fire
danger somewhat. However, breezy southwesterly winds on Friday
will return with much drier air pushing in, and will result in
elevated fire danger Friday, just in time for the 4th of July.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 18Z Forecast
Package...Convection will continue to impact the terminals and
surrounding region today. Thunderstorm activity will be higher and
more widespread compared to yesterday with scattered convection at
times through all corridors and jet routes. Lightning, sudden gusty
winds, brief heavy rain, and CIGs to 7000ft are possible with
thunderstorms today, with the highest risk for impacts between 21Z
and 01Z. Convection will wane after sunset with precipitation ending
by 06Z. After a dry night, additional showers and thunderstorms will
develop Thursday afternoon. Thunderstorms on Thursday should be more
isolated than today but could still produce lightning, gusty outflow
winds, brief heavy rain, and CIGs below 10kft. Outside of convective
influences, winds this afternoon will be east to southeast,
occasionally gusting to 20KT. Winds will diminish tonight and follow
typical wind trends. Southeast winds will increase again Thursday
afternoon but will be a bit lower than today.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 18Z Forecast Package...Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the region through this evening.
Convection may produce sudden gusty winds and patchy blowing dust
with visibility reductions, with the greatest confidence in storms
impacting southern Nevada. Thunderstorms are possible at KBIH, the
Las Vega Valley TAF sites, and KIFP, with a low risk for
thunderstorms at KEED. KDAG should remain dry. Thunderstorm impacts
today include lightning, sudden gusty winds, heavy rain, and CIGs to
7000ft. Convection will wane after sunset with precipitation ending
by 06Z and a dry night is expected. Outside of convection, winds
will be breezy with gusts to 15-25KT expected, with stronger gusts
to around 30kt expected through the Owens Valley and across the
Western Mojave. Overnight, winds will diminish and settle out of
typical diurnal patterns.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Outler
AVIATION...Nickerson

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