015
FXUS65 KVEF 230805
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
105 AM PDT Thu May 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Expect seasonal temperatures to continue through the
weekend with periods of gusty winds. Our northern areas could see
a few showers and thunderstorms Friday and Saturday but most areas
will remain dry. High pressure builds in over the area on Memorial
Day bringing warmer, above normal temperatures to the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...Today and Friday.

A low pressure system to our north will move east, allowing
gradients to relax and resulting in less wind across the region
today. Even so, some gustiness will continue primarily in the
western parts of San Bernardino County and across much of Mohave
County. Look for increasing cloud cover over parts of the
southern Great Basin today but otherwise, sunshine should be
plentiful today to go along with seasonal temperatures.

Shortwave troughing will approach the west coast tonight and move
inland over Southern California on Friday. This is expected to
bring increasing shower chances to parts of the Sierra and
southcentral Nevada Friday afternoon and evening but due to
limited moisture and a general lack of dynamic lift, precipitation
amounts are expected to be light. The larger concern will be
wind. Gusty winds will develop across much of the area in the
afternoon with a stronger belt of winds developing from the
Western Mojave Desert and eastward to the Arizona Strip. In
general, wind gusts of 25-35 mph are expected in these areas from
late Friday afternoon into Saturday morning. Although strong gusts
are forecast along the entire I-15 corridor, the strongest gusts
are expected in the Western Mojave Desert out near Barstow and
Fort Irwin where there is an increased potential for gusts over
40 mph. With this in mind, a Wind Advisory will be issued for the
Western Mojave Desert which includes the Barstow area beginning
late Friday afternoon. Seasonal temperatures are expected on
Friday with mostly clear to partly cloudy skies.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday.

The lingering effects of a broad upper level trough are expected
Saturday, mainly in the form of continued breezy winds. The main
trough axis will be pushing east into Utah by Saturday afternoon,
though there is some discrepancy in how quickly that will occur. The
best chance for continued wind impacts on Saturday will be in the
Western Mojave Desert where enhanced westerly gap flow will be
present. NBM highlights this region as well with 70%-80%
probabilities for wind gusts over 40 MPH while elsewhere
probabilities are much lower. It is worth noting though, if a slower
exit of the trough were to occur, wind impacts may linger longer
across the region. Also of concern will be winds and waves on Lake
Mead and Lake Mohave. Wind speeds 15-20 MPH with higher gusts of 25
MPH could result in isolated impacts for small boats, especially
with increased traffic and risk due to it being a warm holiday
weekend. If winds increase in later forecasts, a wind headline to
highlight the potential impacts may be needed. Otherwise, with the
trough moving through, Saturday will remain cooler than normal in
most locations. Scattered showers will be possible Saturday
afternoon in northern Lincoln County where there could be enough
lingering moisture and forcing closer to the main trough center.
Impacts from any precipitation would be minimal.

The weather pattern will transition from cool northwest flow and
upper level troughing to something more typical of late May with a
building ridge over the Western US Sunday through the first half of
next week. This will mean warming temperatures and drier weather.
Temperatures will climb back above normal by Monday and remain there
for much of next week. How warm it gets will depend on the exact
strength of the ridge and where the ridge axis sets up, which long
range models show a few different camps in the exact set up of this
ridge as well as how much it will interact with a persistent
Pacific Northwest upper level trough.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...Southerly winds with sporadic gusts to
20 knots will remain possible through ~12z before trending light and
variable prior to daybreak. A shift to northerly winds is
anticipated by around 15z which will persist into the early
afternoon before reverting back to southerly directions by late in
the day. Skies will be mostly clear through the period.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...Las Vegas Valley TAF sites will follow similar trends
to KLAS with clear skies expected.  Elsewhere, gusty west winds are
likely near KDAG with gusts near or above 30 knots through the TAF
period. Southerly winds peaking in the afternoon with gusts to 20
knots are expected along the Colorado River Valley. Light winds are
anticipated through early afternoon around KBIH before a push of
breezy west winds in the afternoon shifting to north after dark.
Skies through the entire region will be mostly clear.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Salmen
LONG TERM...Nickerson
AVIATION...Outler

For more forecast information...see us on our webpage:
https://weather.gov/lasvegas or follow us on Facebook and Twitter