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256
FXUS63 KABR 251126 AAA
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
626 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures return today through the weekend.
  The warmest temperatures will occur on Thursday, when some
  locations along and west of the Missouri River will exceed
  90 degrees.

- Thursday will see windy conditions, with some gusts in excess
  of 35 mph possible.

&&

.UPDATE...
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Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

See updated aviation discussion below.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

A strong upper level ridge currently over the Rockies will work its
way eastward today, then will be the dominant feature over the area
through midday Thursday before it gets dampened by a trough tracking
across Montana and western North Dakota.

At the surface, high pressure will be over the region through much
of today. The high will begin to get pushed east late this afternoon
as low pressure approaches from the west. The region will be between
the two systems tonight. The low and its associated frontal boundary
will track over western South Dakota Thursday morning, and to
central South Dakota Thursday afternoon. A tightening pressure
gradient will result in windy conditions on Thursday, with gusts in
excess of 35 mph possible. These strong southerly winds will usher
much warmer air into the region, with afternoon highs 15 to 20
degrees above normal. No precipitation is expected during the near
term period.

High temperatures today will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Low
temperatures tonight will be in the mid to upper 50s. Highs on
Thursday will be in the lower 80s to the mid 90s, with the warmest
temperatures along and west of the Missouri River.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 306 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Thursday night we are still under an upper level ridge. This ridge
stays in place through the day Sunday. Then a low moves across
southern Canada Sunday evening which will put us in westerly to
northwesterly flow aloft. The trough with this low is slightly
farther south than in previous model runs. We stay in mainly
northwesterly flow through Tuesday as high pressure forms over the
desert southwest and our region stays on the downwind side of the
ridge. On Wednesday the axis of the ridge shifts slightly farther
east and we move into the upwind or southwesterly winds side.

The long term is expected to be dry even with a cold front moving
across the region on Monday. This cold front will bring some strong
CAA with it causing winds to gust in excess of 35 mph during the
afternoon. Winds above 25 mph will start in the morning west river
and then increase in strength and spread east through the day. These
strong winds are expected to decrease after sunset. Temperatures
through the weekend will be much above average with highs between 15
and 20 degrees above average. For the second half of the term,
temperatures will be closer to average.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 623 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions will prevail across the area today and tonight.
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&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Parkin