Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Aberdeen, SD

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131 FXUS63 KABR 242315 AAA AFDABR Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Aberdeen SD 615 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A small chance (15 to 20 percent) for a strong to severe thunderstorm will be possible this evening across the east, then for some rain shower activity along and west of the James River Valley late tonight into Tuesday morning. - Two rounds of moisture for late in the week. Convection for Wednesday night/Thursday (30-50%) and showers and thunderstorms with a system early Friday (30-60%). && .SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 The upper level pattern will feature nearly zonal flow tonight, with some weak shortwave energy tracking across the state later tonight. The flow becomes more northwesterly on Tuesday and Tuesday night as ridging build over the Rockies. At the surface, a frontal boundary currently extends from northeast to southwest across the CWA. Very warm temperatures and high dew points have resulted in humid conditions across the area today. Parts of the area remain in a Heat Advisory through early evening. There is a chance that a few thunderstorms could develop across the far northeastern part of the CWA this evening, but the area is under a fairly strong cap (H7 temps of +14C to +16C), so the chances are very low. Should a storm be able to develop, large hail and strong wind gusts would be possible. As the front continues to slide east/southeast tonight, will begin to see some drier air settle in over the region. A weak boundary will accompany the aforementioned upper level energy, and may result in some rain shower activity along and west of the James River Valley late tonight into Tuesday morning. High pressure will then move in, with dry conditions expected Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night. Low temperatures tonight will be in the lower to mid 60s. High temperatures on Tuesday will be in the mid 80s to around 90 degrees. Lows Tuesday night will be in the mid 50s to lower 60s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Wednesday, an upper level ridge moves into the area and will last through the day Thursday. However, a shortwave will move along the ridge Thursday bringing rain chances to the area. Friday, rain chances continue ahead of a low pressure system as the cold front moves west to east across the region. Saturday the low moves east and out of the area. Sunday another ridge builds in and will last through the end of the period. Thursday morning, rain chances move west to east across the area with 50 to 70% chances west of the James River (highest in central and south central SD). Chances continue overnight and increase Friday morning with 60 to 70% PoPs north of I-90. This will decrease west to east through the day. Chances have decreased for Saturday morning with just 20 to 30% along and south of I-90, less north of I- 90. Accumulations during these 3 days are still expected to be less than an inch. Chances of more than a quarter of an inch are between 50 and 70% across the entire CWA. Temperatures will be closer to normal for the first part of the long term and then dip below average after Saturday. Some stronger winds are possible Thursday afternoon with gusts up to around 30 mph. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
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Issued at 613 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday afternoon.
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&& .ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for SDZ006-017>023- 035>037-048-051. MN...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Parkin LONG TERM...KK AVIATION...Wise