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036
FXUS63 KABR 200525 AAC
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
1225 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 60 to 90 percent chance for showers and thunderstorms
  Thursday through Saturday. Some storms may be strong to severe
  Friday afternoon and evening.

- Sunday and Monday will be dry and warm.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

See updated aviation discussion below.

UPDATE Issued at 1032 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

The going forecast is doing okay. No changes planned other than
some minor adjustments to PoPs as the current batch of showers
with embedded isolated thunderstorms has developed.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

High pressure will gradually slide off to the east tonight and
Thursday. South to southeast winds will draw up moisture at the
lower levels on Thursday and shortwave energy moving through the
upper ridge will add some lift. Pops will increase from southwest to
northeast tonight into Thursday though the bulk of the moisture will
be focused along and south of Hwy 212. Instability remains limited,
so while general thunder is expected, there`s no severe outlook in
effect at the moment.

Thursday night, a warm front will stretch northeast into south
central SD. For Thursday night, thunderstorms should remain non-
severe with the best instability farther south along the SD/NE
border with the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 229 PM CDT Wed Jun 19 2024

Friday we have a lee side low making its way across the region with
a warm front draped west to east across southern SD and moving north
to northeast during the day. Saturday, a shortwave trough moves
across our north before a ridge moves in Sunday. The axis of this
ridge moves across our area fairly quickly and we are left in
westerly upper level flow until Tuesday night when a ridge starts to
build again.

Friday looks to have the most active weather of the period with
showers possible in the morning becoming strong to possibly severe
storms in the afternoon (60 to 90% chances). The warm front will
move across the area and become a focal point for storm formation.
Lapse rates are around 6.3 to 7.3 C/km, depending on the model,
which is favorable for large hail, but not overly so. MLCAPE values
range from 1000 to 1500 J/kg except in the NAM which has some values
in excess of 3000 J/kg Friday evening over eastern SD. SPC currently
has most of SD east of the Missouri River in a Marginal (1 out of 5)
risk but mentioned that this could be increased to a Slight risk in
future updates. Storm chances decrease after sundown, but showers
may continue into Saturday morning. Overall, this system is expected
to bring some pretty significant rain amounts to the area with 45 to
85% chances of more than half an inch in 24 hours (ending Saturday
morning) across all areas east of the Missouri River. The rest of
the period looks dry for the most part, except some possible light
showers Tuesday.

Temperatures will be increasing for the first part of the period,
peaking on Monday with highs in the 90s. The second portion will be
slightly cooler with highs in the 80s. Winds will be around normal,
gusting up to around 20 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
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Issued at 1223 AM CDT Thu Jun 20 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are expected to prevail for several more hours.
MVFR/IFR cigs are forecast to move north into the region toward
morning. KPIR looks to be impacted first, by 12Z. After 12Z
Thursday, MVFR/IFR conditions are forecast to spread into KMBG, KABR
and KATY. The scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms that began developing/moving northeast into the CWA
are forecast to persist/redevelop over the next 12 to 24 hours. As
such, the TAFS (mainly KPIR/KABR and KATY) are littered with
-shra/-tsra mention throughout the TAF period.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Dorn
SHORT TERM...Wise
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...Parkin