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957
FXUS63 KABR 160845
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
345 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

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- Warm temperatures will continue through Thursday before cooler
  air returns late in the week. Highs/Lows are some 10 to 25 degrees
  above normal today and Tuesday.

- Storms west river this morning are producing gusty winds close to
  50mph. Additional thunderstorm chances (about 20%) exist for tonight
  in eastern South Dakota/western MN. Hazardous weather is not
  anticipated.

- Multiple chances for precipitation will persist through most of
  this week. Highest chances will arrive Tuesday night and continue
  through midday Wednesday with a 40 to 80 percent chance for showers
  and storms.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/...
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Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Southwest flow through the short term, with a compact,
shortwave just to the west with PVA mainly across western SD/central
ND. Storms out west have pulsed occasionally with 50dbz up to 40kft,
and wind gusts around 50mph so will continue to monitor the
marginal severe weather threat for far western Corson/Dewey. This
wave will continue north and become negatively tilted through its
progression into western/central ND, with little reflection
south/southeast into the CWA for later today. Will need to be
cautious with respect to POPs however, as NAM BUFKIT soundings
support some weak mid-level instability/moisture for the James
valley and points east. There may even be a subtle wave embedded
within the southwest flow regime as well. A more discernible wave
crosses the area tonight, across the eastern CWA. Shear at this
point is relatively weak which will limit any severe weather
potential, and CAMS struggle to generate any convection of note.

As for temperatures, models are leaning towards a just a degree or
two cooler for today, but still 10 to 20 degrees above normal. Not
just that, but without an airmass change, dewpoints are already well
into the 60s. NBM probability of seeing a 70 dewpoint or greater has
increased to 20 to 40 percent this afternoon. Rinse and repeat for
Tuesday. With this humidity, we are also observing readings that
come close to near record warm low temperatures...with lows 18 to 23
degrees above normal in the forecast for tonight.
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&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
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Issued at 344 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

The long range forecast will be marked by several rounds of
precipitation along with above normal temperatures initially
followed by the return of near normal readings by the end of period.
Starting off Tuesday night into Wednesday, low pressure at the sfc
and aloft will be tracking north-northeastward from the Northern
Rockies into the Northern High Plains. Upper level energy rounding
the base of the upper low is progged to trek across the Dakotas
leading to likely chances for showers and thunderstorms. Severe
weather potential remains uncertain at this time. However, SPC has
highlighted our western zones(Missouri Valley) with a marginal risk.
A few more robust storms could develop in a more favorable
environment farther west earlier and stumble into central SD Tuesday
night. We`ll continue to advertise a 40-80% percent chance for
rainfall through midday Wednesday before that bulk of that moisture
shifts north and east of our area.

Although a period of drier conditions will work its way into our
western and central forecast area by late Wednesday into Thursday,
lingering 20-40% PoPs will be possible across our eastern zones.
More widespread chances for precip will return late in the work week
into the upcoming weekend. Deterministic and ensemble guidance along
with cluster analysis indicate a persistent active upper flow
pattern with upper troughing translating out of the western CONUS
into the Plains. NBM blankets most of our forecast area with 20-40%
PoPs Friday through Sunday. Temperatures will initially begin out
well above normal with highs in the 80s and lows in the 60s.
However, the passage of a cold front or two later in the work week
and perhaps this weekend will return readings back closer to normal
for this part of September. Daytime highs in the 70s and lows in the
40s and 50s are anticipated to become more common by the end of this
period.
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&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1213 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR conditions are anticipated for all terminals. Showers and
isolated storms associated with a wave out west could affect
KPIR/KMBG...but confidence is low with respect to actually seeing
a thunderstorm on station and for now are precluded from the TAFS.


&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Connelly
LONG TERM...Vipond
AVIATION...Connelly