-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
967
FXUS63 KABR 222346
AFDABR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Aberdeen SD
646 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A few thunderstorms possible across central South Dakota this
  evening. Hail and strong wind gusts possible across far north
  central South Dakota.

- Dry and warmer Sunday.

- Periodic chances for showers and storms will be possible next
  week, especially late Monday/early Tuesday and again Thursday
  and Friday. Otherwise, dry conditions look to prevail with
  temperatures initially well above normal Monday into Tuesday
  before returning closer to seasonal normals the rest of the
  week.

&&

.UPDATE...
-- Changed Discussion --
Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

We will continue to monitor the storms moving across southwestern
ND this evening, as they near our north central SD counties. The
currently warned storm has a history of 1 inch hail and winds to
69 mph. Otherwise we`re monitoring a few showers and storms over
Marshall County. The ongoing forecast remains on track, with few
changes anticipated.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

An upper level trough is currently exiting the region to the east,
and will leave northwest flow in its wake tonight, with ridging
building over the Northern Plains Sunday and Sunday night.

At the surface, the main area of rain that affected the region
overnight and this morning has now exited to the east, and just
seeing a few heat of the day showers now across central and eastern
parts of the CWA. Models are hinting at the potential for some
shower or thunderstorm development across central South Dakota this
evening in an area of 1000-1500 J/kg and 40 to 50 knots of shear,
and this is supported by some of the CAMs. SPC has also dropped a
Marginal Risk over the far northwestern part of the CWA. Will keep
some small POPs in to cover for this possibility. High pressure will
settle in over the region on Sunday, then the CWA will become
situated between high pressure to the east and low pressure to the
west Sunday night. Warmer air will begin to be ushered into the
area, and with the aforementioned upper ridge in place, will see
fairly warm temperatures on Sunday. No precipitation is expected
during this time.

Low temperatures tonight will be in the upper 50s to lower 60s. High
temperatures on Sunday will be in the 80s. Lows Sunday night will be
in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Monday morning we are under an upper level ridge which will be
moving east and out of the region through the day. Tuesday, we are
in westerly flow aloft and remain until Wednesday when another ridge
starts to build into the region. Thursday morning, a shortwave
embedded in the ridge moves across the region. Friday, we begin to
transition into an upper level trough pattern that will last through
the end of the period.

Tuesday morning will be our first chance for some rain with 15 to
35% chances across the area. Accumulations are expected to be light,
with up to a 25% chance of more than a quarter of an inch in 24
hours. The next chance for some rain will be Thursday through
Saturday as that shortwave moves through and with the cold front
from the trough/low Friday and Saturday. The highest PoPs are Friday
morning and again Saturday morning with widespread 40 to 50%
chances. For this time period, accumulations are not expected to be
more than an inch. NBM shows chances of more than an inch in 72
hours - ending Sunday morning - to be less than 30%. Chances for
more than a quarter of an inch in 72 hours are between 40 and 70%
across the area with the lowest values across south central SD.

Temperatures will be at their warmest on Monday with highs in the
low to mid 90s. It also looks to be rather humid that day too with
heat indices nearing 100 degrees, especially in central SD. Most of
the rest of the period will be around average until Saturday when
temperatures look to be 5 to 10 degrees below average. Winds are not
expected to be much higher than normal. A few days could have gusts
around 25 mph, otherwise, gusts will be 20 mph or less.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/...
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Issued at 646 PM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024

Terminals KABR,KATY,KPIR,KMBG

VFR ceilings and visibility will continue at PIR and MBG, outside
of any thunderstorms moving across the area late this evening -
with a low enough probability that it hasn`t been included at this
time. Fog is expected overnight at both ABR and ATY, with
visibility lowering to less than 1 mile at ATY around daybreak
Sunday. Expect VFR conditions to return by 16Z.
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&&

.ABR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...Parkin
LONG TERM...KK
AVIATION...KF