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821
FXUS61 KAKQ 010944
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
544 AM EDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure remains over the area today with dry and pleasant
weather. A weak low system will bring the chance for a few showers
and storms late Sunday into Monday. Unsettled and mild weather
returns from mid to late week with scattered showers and storms
possible through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 545 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Pleasant this afternoon after a chilly morning.

The latest sfc analysis indicates ~1024 mb sfc high pressure
centered over the area early this morning. High pressure
lingers over the area today before gradually moving offshore
this evening into tonight. Chilly this morning with temps as of
540 AM ranging from the mid 40s inland, lower 50s in urban
areas, and mid- upper 50s along to the coast. A pleasant warm-
up into the lower 80s is on the way this afternoon with
pleasantly low humidity and light winds. Thin cirrus gradually
increase in coverage from SW to NE late this afternoon into
tonight with mostly cloudy skies by sunrise Sun. Lows tonight in
the mid 50s W to the upper 50s to lower 60s E.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- There is a chance for a few showers and storms late Sunday
afternoon into Sunday night and again Monday afternoon.

A shortwave and surface low pass to the N of the local area Sun into
Sun night, allowing for the chance of a few showers and storms from
late Sun afternoon into Sunday night. However, models continue to
show discrepancies with coverage of convection with most CAMs
showing little to no precip (highest chances N/NW). Therefore, have
kept PoPs limited to <35%. Another weak shortwave moves towards the
area Mon with a chance (<35%) for additional afternoon
showers/storms. Given cloud cover Sun, highs have trended cooler in
the upper 70s NW to the lower 80s E (apart from mid 80s along the
coast). A bit warmer Mon with highs in the low-mid 80s. Lows in the
60s both nights.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Unsettled weather persists from mid to late week with multiple
chances for showers and storms.

- Mild with highs in the low-mid 80s each day.

Aloft, a ridge briefly builds across the East Coast through midweek
before a trough moves SE into the Great Lakes and interior New
England from mid to late week, potentially becoming a cutoff low. As
this pattern change occurs, models show the potential for multiple
shortwaves moving through the area. Therefore, daily chances for
showers/storms exists. That being said, PoPs are low for Tue, Fri,
and Sat (generally <20% apart from 25% across SE VA/NE NC Fri
afternoon) with the highest confidence in scattered showers/storms
on Wed and Thu (40-50% PoPs). Thu appears to be the greatest chance
for storms all week as the combination of the upper level trough
approaching and a cold front moving through should provide for
enough forcing for at least somewhat organized convection. A
potential overlap of shear and instability may allow for some
stronger storms as well. However, uncertainty is still high this far
out regarding timing of the necessary ingredients for any mention of
severe (as opposed to "typical") storms at this time. Will continue
to monitor. Otherwise, mild all week with highs mainly in the mid
80s each day (upper 70s to lower 80s across the Eastern Shore) and
lows mainly in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 540 AM EDT Saturday...

VFR conditions and light and variable winds continue through
the 12z taf period. High pressure centered over the area
gradually moves offshore this afternoon. Mostly sunny skies
continue through the day outside of thin cirrus. Cirrus
thickens from SW to NE late this afternoon into tonight with BKN
skies by Sun morning.

Dry and VFR conditions are expected to prevail through most of
Sun, with a low chance for showers/storms late Sun into Sun
night (highest chance RIC-SBY). Mainly dry and VFR Mon and Tue
outside of a few isolated showers/storms in the
afternoon/evening. Unsettled weather returns from mid to late
week with daily chances for showers/storms.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.MARINE...
As of 315 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

-High pressure remains over the region to start the weekend with
light offshore flow expected before unsettled weather returns for
next week.

High pressure continues to settle in across the region early this
morning. This has resulted in light west/southwesterly flow over the
local waters with speeds generally hovering around 5-10kt. Seas are
2-3ft with waves in the Bay around 1 foot. Expect these benign
conditions to persist today and into the first half of Sunday. The
high pressure will then begin to slide offshore later tonight into
early Sunday. As the flow becomes more southerly, hi-res models are
indicating that speeds may increase to 10-15kt briefly tonight.
Currently expect it to be too borderline and too brief for any SCA
headlines, but wouldn`t be surprised to see a few spots in the Bay
reach 16-19kt for an hour or two.

A weakening shortwave will approach the area Sunday afternoon
bringing an increase of moisture and mark the return of scattered
shower and storm chances. Uncertainty remains in the exact precip
coverage forecast for early next week, but expect an unsettled
weather pattern to persist. Daily scattered rain and storm chances
will be possible, along with erratic wind gusts with any storm.
Outside of that, generally expecting winds to remain around 10-15kt,
with occasional gusts to 20kt. Seas will be 2-3ft into the first
week of June, with waves in the Bay of 1-2ft.

A low risk of rip currents is expected at all local beaches this
weekend.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...JKP