-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --
496
FXUS61 KAKQ 250725
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
325 AM EDT Sat May 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A surface trough will affect western portions of the region
this afternoon into this evening. A warm front followed by a
cold front will affect the area Sunday afternoon through Monday
night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
As of 855 PM EDT Friday...

Showers/storms have moved into far SE VA and NE NC this evening
associated with a weak surface trough and upper short wave.
These should exit the area in the next few hours. Behind this
area of precipitation, skies are clearing out. With the light
winds, high dew points and rainfall from this afternoon,
would suspect fog development overnight. Would not be completely
shocked if we see dense fog and have mentioned this in the
forecast. Locations that will be most likely to see dense fog
would be east of I-95, as some drier air will be attempting to
move into especially the NW part of the forecast area from the
north overnight (dew points are in the lower 60s in northern
VA).

Otherwise, have raised temps a degree or two tonight given the
dew points in the upper 60s and lower 70s in most of the area.

As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Showers and storms pose a threat of heavy rainfall and
  isolated strong wind gusts through this evening.

- Fog development is expected tonight.

Showers and storms have formed across nrn portions of the forecast
area in advance of a slowly (southward) moving frontal boundary
(currently over the nrn Mid-Atlantic). While storms have been mainly
sub-severe, very weak flow, PWATs of 1.5-1.7", and ~1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE has led to a few nearly stationary storms producing quite
efficient rainfall rates. This has prompted at least one flash flood
warning on the Northern Neck. Should also note that steep low-level
lapse rates (and thus high 0-3km CAPE) and remnant vorticity from
the nearby boundary could allow for a few benign funnel clouds
through this aftn (especially N). While earlier rainfall over SE
portions of the area led to some stabilization, expect some airmass
recovery and building instability over the next few hrs. Thus,
additional storms are expected to develop and slowly slide S into
this evening. CAMs focus the highest coverage along and just E of
the I-95 corridor into the adjacent I-64 corridor, as well as
along/near the Albemarle Sound. Main threat will be heavy rain (and
isolated flooding), but cannot rule out an isolated severe wind gust
given the steep low-level lapse rates. Organized severe is not
expected given weak deep-layer shear. Highs this aftn will top out
in the upper 70s or lower 80s. Coverage of storms wanes considerably
after 8 PM and especially after midnight. Lows tonight drop into the
low-mid 60s. Given weak winds and dew points remaining into the 60s,
most guidance is honing in on fog development tonight, which could
become locally dense at times.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

- Isolated showers and storms continue through the weekend.

- More widespread thunderstorms expected Memorial Day with a
  cold front. A few storms could be strong to severe.

The front will lift back N on Saturday as a weak front front.
Overall, there should be lower coverage of storms Saturday given
weaker forcing with transient ridging aloft. However, weak lee
troughing should focus widely scattered storms along and E of
the Appalachians. A few of these storms could approach the wrn
edge of our CWA. Generally cut back on PoPs with the official
forecast showing 30% W of I-95, 20% E of I-95, and less than 15%
on the Eastern Shore. No severe wx is expected. Highs will be
warmer, ranging from the lower 80s along the coast to the mid-
upper 80s inland. There will also be more sun. Any remnant
showers dissipate with the loss of heating. Overnight lows Sat
in the 60s with at least some additional potential for fog.

A shortwave slides from the OH River Valley into the Great Lakes
Sunday. However, coverage of storms again looks on the low side
given the lack of any sfc triggers. Will have 20% PoPs for the wrn
2/3rds of the area and 15% or less further E. Highs will be in the
mid-upper 80s, with perhaps a few readings approaching 90F across
interior VA and NC.

Anomalous upper troughing will push a cold front toward the region
on Monday (Memorial Day). This favors higher coverage of showers and
storms, with some potential for strong-severe storms if the FROPA
timing is aligned with the daytime heating window. GFS/ECMWF both
show surface-based CAPE increasing to 1500-2500 J/kg, combined with
30-40 kt of effective shear. Robust southerly flow and warm
advection should push most areas into the mid-upper 80s (low 80s
eastern shore) for highs. Highest coverage of convection shifts E/SE
into the evening hours Sunday, with continuing chances for
strong/severe storms. Rain should be off the coast by the morning
Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

- Trending more sensible and cooler for the middle and end of
  next week.

A relatively deep trough will remain positioned over the ern
CONUS through the end of the week. Highs Tue still in the 80s
with any appreciable "cold" advection holding off until
Wednesday. Highs Wed in the upper 70s-low 80s. With disturbances
pivoting through the trough, can`t rule out isolated showers or
storms at times (especially Tue and Wed). Will have slight chc
PoPs. It will trend cooler by Thursday and Friday with highs
back into the 70s areawide. Overnight Tue night in the low-mid
60s and in the 50s Wed/Thu night.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Saturday...

Main concern at all TAF sites through 12-13z this morning will
be for IFR/LIFR CIGs and/or VSBYS from fog. Expect conditions to
improve to VFR at all sites by 14/15z. Mainly VFR conditions
will prevail from midday today into Sun morning. However,
isolated shower/storm could affect RIC or possibly SBY later
today into this evening, which may produce brief sub-VFR
conditions.

Outlook: Widely sctd to sctd showers/storms will then be possible
later Sun into Mon evening. Outside of storms, expecting mainly
VFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
-- Changed Discussion --
As of 325 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

- Benign conditions expected on the waters through the weekend.

- Chances for showers and storms (especially each afternoon and
  evening) through Memorial Day.

Benign marine conditions across the local waters early this
morning, with high pressure in place over the region. Winds are
NNW 5-10 kt winds this morning with waves 1 ft or less and seas
1-2 ft. Winds remain light this morning, with afternoon
seabreeze circulations likely to veer winds around to become
onshore, with south to southeast winds returning in the later
afternoon and evening/late night hours. This same summer-like
pattern will repeat through the holiday weekend. There will
also be the chance for scattered afternoon and evening showers
and storms each day.

A cold front approaches the area on Monday, associated with a
deepening low pressure center over the Great Lakes. Have
continued to keep the forecast below SCA criteria. Winds veer
around to the NW behind the front on Tuesday into midweek. Some
more widespread showers and storms will be possible on Memorial
Day (Monday) ahead of the approaching cold front. E-SE swell
behind that system that could briefly bring some 5 foot seas by
Monday night. However, seas quickly subside as winds turn back
offshore Tue-Wed.

Low Rip Risk on area beaches through the weekend, with moderate
rip risk for northern beaches on Monday with building seas and
more of a shore normal component to wave energy.
-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...SW/MRD
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ERI/MAM