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881
FXUS61 KALY 201948
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
348 PM EDT Mon May 20 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
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It will remain mild tonight with a mostly clear sky and
some patchy late-night fog.  Tuesday will be another warm day, with
a few afternoon thunderstorms across northern areas.  Hot weather is
expected again on Wednesday, with the threat for some showers or
thunderstorms for Wednesday night into Thursday, before more
seasonable temperatures return to the region.
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&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
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As of 348 PM EDT...Surface high pressure (around 1018 mb) is
located off the eastern seaboard. Upper level ridge axis,
extending from the mid Atlantic north-northeast towards New
England, is centered close to the area, but this will be
shifting slightly east-southeast for tonight.

Visible satellite imagery shows some passing cirrus, along with
diurnal cumulus (mainly for the high terrain). Skies will remain
fairly clear into tonight, as the diurnal cumulus dissipates,
and just the passing cirrus clouds remain. A light south to
southeast flow at low levels will continue to keep low levels
fairly moist.

After the warm temps today, it will cool this evening, but the
relatively high dewpoints will keep temps from getting too
chilly tonight. Most spots will see lows in the 50s to near 60.
Some patchy fog may develop in valley areas (especially spots
sheltered within the terrain), but fog should be fairly brief
and limited to just the late night hours.
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&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
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With the ridge axis shifting eastward, a weak disturbance will
be passing by to the north on Tuesday. The best dynamics will be
well north of the area across southern Canada. Northern areas
could see a stray shower or t-storm as early as the morning
hours, although the better chance is likely in the afternoon or
early evening hours. Even then, coverage will be fairly
isolated, as the best forcing will be north of the area. While
the warm and humid air mass in place will allow for plenty of
instability, shear looks limited, with 0-6 km bulk shear values
around 20 kts and mid level lapse rates look fairly poor as
well. Any thunderstorm in our area should be fairly brief and
short- lived, although some gusty winds can`t be ruled out when
storms collapse thanks to the strong DCAPE and an inverted v
setup in the lower portion of the sounding profile. With plenty
of warm temps in place, it will another very warm day, with many
areas seeing highs well into the 80s.

After the disturbance departs, quiet weather will return for
Tuesday night, but it looks muggy and mild, with many spots
seeing lows in the 60s and skies becoming mostly clear once
again.

Ridging will try to reestablish itself briefly on Wednesday.
Temps aloft look very warm for late May (850 hpa temps around
+15 to +18 C) and high should once again be well into the 80s,
with even some lows 90s possible in the Capital Region. Heat
Index values look to fall short of Advisory criteria, but it
will be close and anyone being outdoors should take caution, as
this will be the first shot of real heat for this season. After
a mostly sunny start to the day, some clouds will begin to
increase for late in the day, as the next disturbance begins to
approach from the Great Lakes.

Some showers and thunderstorms are possible for Wed evening into
Wed night, as a pre-frontal surface trough heads towards the
area. The timing isn`t favorable for strong storms and shear
still looks fairly low, so just scattered showers and non-
severe thunderstorms are anticipated. Lows will be in the 60s
and it will continue to feel rather humid on Wed night.
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&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
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Frontal boundary will be moving through the region on Thursday.
There still are some questions regarding the exact timing of the
frontal boundary. 0-6 km bulk shear may increase somewhat,
although the best upper level forcing will still be fairly well
displaced from the surface boundary. There is the potential for
some stronger storms on Thursday if the boundary comes through
during the afternoon and some better heating can occur ahead of
the front allowing for more instability. Will continue to
mention a high chance for showers and t-storms on Thursday, with
daytime temps still in the 80s in many areas.

Behind the front, more seasonable and less humid air will return
for Friday. Daytime temps will only be in the 70s, with more
reasonable dewpoints and no expected precip. It should continue
to remain fairly quiet into Saturday as well, with comfortable
temps and humidity levels and little chance for any precip.

The forecast for Sunday into Labor Day is a little more
uncertain, but mostly due to being farther out in the forecast
period and there is uncertainty regarding exact timing of any
approaching disturbances. There could be some approaching upper
level disturbances from the west, allowing for some scattered
shower and t-storm activity, but the forecast doesn`t look a
wash out at all and most of the time it will be dry. Temps look
seasonable in the 70s with typical levels of humidity for late
May.
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&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
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Through 18Z Tue...VFR flying conditions expected to prevail into
tonight with continued few-sct fair wx cu at 3-5 kft, few-sct ci at
25 kft, and unrestricted vsbys. Overnight, diurnal cu will dissipate
with valley fog/mist expected to develop after 08-09Z Tue. ALB may
remain VFR despite VCFG, while other terminals are more likely to
see MVFR or IFR cigs/vsbys. Any fog will rapidly lift after sunrise,
with widespread VFR expected again after 12Z Tue.

Light south to southwest winds at 3-6 kt will continue through this
afternoon, before diminishing to calm or light and variable through
the evening and overnight, after 00-03Z Tue. Winds subsequently
increase again out of the south to southwest at 4-8 kt after 12Z
Tue.

Outlook...

Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Friday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Saturday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
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&&

.CLIMATE...
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Record High Temperature for May 21:

Albany: 92 in 1941
Glens Falls: 93 in 1921
Poughkeepsie: 95 in 1996

Record High Temperature for May 22:

Albany: 97 in 1911
Glens Falls: 98 in 1911
Poughkeepsie: 98 in 1941
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&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frugis
NEAR TERM...Frugis
SHORT TERM...Frugis
LONG TERM...Frugis
AVIATION...Picard
CLIMATE...Speciale